Hawks vs Bulls NBA Odds, Picks and Predictions Tonight

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27 January 2023

Hawks vs Bulls NBA Odds, Picks and Predictions Tonight

Atlanta seemed to make a win-now move when it traded for Dejounte Murray in the offseason. Although the relationship got off to a rocky start, things have begun to smoothen out and our NBA betting picks are banking on Murray Monday night.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Just three games separate the teams ranked 10 through six in the Eastern Conference. That group is full of teams desperate to get out of the Play-In tournament and into a guaranteed playoff spot. Two of those teams fighting for home court — the Atlanta Hawks and Chicago Bulls — face off, with the winner one step closer to rescuing a slow start to the season with a late playoff push.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Hawks vs. Bulls on Monday, January 23 highlight the recent strong play of Atlanta guard Dejounte Murray, believing it will continue in Chicago.

Hawks vs Bulls best odds

Hawks vs Bulls picks and predictions

Don’t look now but the Atlanta Hawks have won seven of their last 10 games and are making a push for home court in the playoffs.

A big part of the reason for their turnaround is that Trae Young and Dejounte Murray’s partnership has begun to mature. Trae has started to hit shots, and Murray has both rediscovered his own aggression and modulated his game to play beside Young.

As soon as the trade for Murray was announced, the primary question became how would these two guards work to maximize each other's strengths. Would Dejounte — a ball-dominant point guard in San Antonio — be able to find success without the ball in his hands on every play?

The answer recently at least, has been a resounding yes. Murray has looked increasingly comfortable as an off-ball player in recent weeks. He moves without the ball and has quickened the release on his catch-and-shoot threes. He just looks much more natural shooting off the catch than at any point in his Spurs career.

He’s now up to 37% from deep on 5.5 attempts, both career highs. It’s his play in January that has really been eye-opening, however, with Murray hitting 43.4% of his triples over an 11-game stretch.

Being a legit threat from deep has opened up the floor for Murray, who traditionally does most of his damage 15 feet and in. Make no mistake, the bread and butter of his game are still attacking the paint and hitting floaters. He can do it in isolation, but will also frequently attack as a pick-and-roll ball handler or just fly in off an off-ball screen to get a running start at a clean look.

The threat of the three has forced opponents to close out hard on the perimeter, giving Dejounte an extra step to beat opponents into the paint. It’s translated to a bevy of high-scoring games that oddsmakers have yet to properly adjust for. Murray is averaging 28 points per game over his last five and would have cashed this prop in all five games.

My best bet: Dejounte Murray Over 21.5 points (-105)

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Hawks vs Bulls spread analysis

Both Atlanta and Chicago came into this year with preseason expectations that both teams have fallen well short of. And yet, the NBA season is long, and both teams are showing promising signs of late.

The Hawks had been struggling most of the season to get Trae Young going alongside new addition Dejounte Murray, but they’ve been finding the right balance the last several games.

The issue this team had the past few seasons is that while they’ve been one of the best offenses their defense has been so poor, they were never a real threat.

The theory of Atlanta (and the Murray trade) was always to cobble together an average defense and maintain a Top-5 offense. It's not quite there yet, but over the last two weeks, it has been playing at the level of a Top-10 offense while managing to consolidate its defensive gains. That two-way balance has contributed to it going 4-1 against the spread in the last five.

The Bulls have played to the level of the league’s fifth-best defense in the past two weeks per Cleaning the Glass. In that same time, they’ve seen their mostly average offense become something substantially worse, slipping as low as 23rd overall. Despite that, they’ve been solid ATS, going 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.

Importantly, they’re coming in having not played since their game in Paris on Thursday. The Bulls, unsurprisingly for a team with older veterans (or in Zach LaVine’s case, the knees of one) they perform much better after layoffs. Chicago is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games playing on three or more days rest.

Hawks vs Bulls Over/Under analysis

The total for Monday’s game has come in at 237.5, a clear demonstration that sportsbooks are not convinced by the recent strong defensive play by both the Hawks and the Bulls.

It could also just be an overcorrection, as the Over is 4-0 in the Hawks’ last four overall as well as 6-2 in the Bulls’ last eight games at home. Or is their skepticism justified?

In terms of location-effective field goal percentage, in other words, what you would expect an average opposing to score based on where they get their shots, the Hawks and the Bulls are two of the seventh-worst defenses in the NBA per Cleaning the Glass. In this recent stretch in January where they’ve both played much better defense — at least by the numbers — what we find is that they’ve been allowing even worse shots.

So while it’s not totally accurate to say that Atlanta and Chicago’s defensive improvements have been the result of luck, they do not profile as sustainable either. Sooner or later, these two teams are going to regress on defense.