Hawks vs. Celtics odds, prediction: how we’re riding with this system for Game 6

Ahead of Thursday’s Game 6 tipoff in Atlanta, we’re set to share our Hawks vs. Celtics prediction and best bet.

Atlanta’s chances of advancing seemingly looked dead after the first four games. However, head coach Quin Snyder’s side scrapped and clawed their way back to a 3-2 series deficit.

On Tuesday’, the Hawks pulled off a shocking 119-117 win in Boston. Despite those two wins, this remains a Celtics side that has won six of eight head-to-head meetings this season.

The Celtics are seven-point favorites on Thursday with the total set at 232 points. Those interested in the Hawks can take the points or +245 on the moneyline.

Boston Celtics -7 Points (-110)

Don’t let Atlanta’s sparkling Game 5 win fool you. Boston is far and away the better side and should close out the series on Thursday.

That’s reflected in the market’s perception of this game. Both recreational and professional bettors are aligned on the Celtics, who have seen a sizable majority of both tickets and money.

According to the Action Network PRO Report, Boston, which opened as a six-point favorite, has seen 80% of all tickets along with 94% of the total handle to drive them up a point.

As a function of the latter percentage, a historically profitable betting system in favor of the Celtics has been triggered.

Over the past 350 playoff games where a team receives a higher money percentage than their ticket percentage, they’re a whopping 60% ATS for a 17% return on investment.

What’s even more impressive about that system is that it’s sustained some recent failures — only two qualifying teams have covered in the past 10 recommendations — but it remains at 17-13 ATS since the start of this first round for a slight profit.

Beyond those betting trends, there’s ample evidence suggesting Boston is a tier above Atlanta.

For the regular season, the Celtics finished with the best adjusted net rating at +6.6, per dunksandthress.com. Atlanta, meanwhile, posted the 17th-best adjusted net rating in the association, albeit while facing an ever-so-slightly more difficult schedule.

We’ve already mentioned the Celtics’ dominance in this head-to-head, too. In their six wins this season against the Hawks, they’ve managed to cover this spread in all but one game.

Thus, if you assume the Celtics win this game — bookmakers are telling you there’s a 75% chance they do that — there’s a decent-sized chance they also cover the spread.

For those reasons, we’ll back the Celtics as heavy road favorites to end the series and advance to the second round.