Heat vs Cavaliers Picks & Odds (Jan. 31)

Cleveland Cavaliers Betting Analysis

Cleveland is 21-5 in 26 games at home. That’s the best home record in the East, and tied for the second most home wins in the NBA. The Cavaliers are fresh off a convincing 122-99 victory over the Clippers at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse, and have won four of their last five at home.

Those victories have come against some pretty stiff competition. In addition to beating LAC, a top-five contender in the NBA Championship odds, Cleveland has also posted home wins over the Bucks, Pelicans and Suns. Their advanced splits in their own building are outrageous, proving home really is where the heart is.

NBA Top-5 Net Ratings at Home

The Cavs Net Rating at the Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse is 8.5. For reference, the top Net Rating for the entire season belongs to the Celtics at 5.7. Cleveland averages 116.2 points per 100 possessions at home, which is four more points than they average on the road.

Defensively, the numbers are just as impressive. The Cavaliers yield only 107.8 points per 100 possessions at home. That’s four points better than their mark as visitors.

Injury wise, Kevin Love is questionable with a back issue. He’s missed the last three games because of it, with Cleveland posting a 2-1 record in his absence. All-Star starter Donovan Mitchell made his return to the lineup in the Cavs last contest and should be good to go versus Miami. Mitchell missed three games with a groin injury, after sitting out a trio of contests earlier in the month with the same issue.

Miami Heat Betting Analysis

Miami, meanwhile, comes in fresh off an embarrassing loss at Charlotte. The Heat fell 122-117 to the lowly Hornets, snapping a three-game win streak. Miami had won eight of ten overall, vaulting themselves into first place in the East.

The loss versus Charlotte was an outlier performance by the Heat’s defense. They yielded a 54% field goal percentage and were outrebounded by 11. They also lost the fast break points battle by 15, and were only able to generate 16 points off 19 Hornets turnovers.

Offensively, they shot the ball well (48%), but that has not been a common theme this season. Miami ranks dead last in the NBA in scoring and 27th in field goal percentage. They’ve been especially poor on offense on the road, averaging just 109.8 points per 100 possessions. Extrapolated over an entire season, that would rank 28th in the league.

Heat vs Cavaliers Predictions

Miami has a tendency to play up or down to its competition. We saw that on Sunday versus the Hornets, much like we saw it over the previous three games when they beat teams like the Celtics and Hornets.

This is a bad spot for them though. Cleveland has the ability to expose their biggest weakness which is at the offensive end. The Cavaliers play exceptionally well in their own building, and even if the Heat’s defense is a top ranked unit, bettors should have confidence that Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen can do enough damage.

Cleveland is 17-8-1 against the spread in their own building, covering by an average of 2.8 points per outing. The Heat on the other hand, are 19-23-3 ATS this season, tied for the second worst cover rate in the league.

Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers -4 (-110)