Heat vs Knicks Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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24 November 2023

Heat vs Knicks Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

With Jalen Brunson upping his volume in attempts from downtown, we're backing New York's star point guard when he faces a Miami team that is very inviting to shots from long range. Read more in our Heat vs. Knicks betting picks.

The NBA In-Season Tournament resumes on Friday with a matchup between the Miami Heat and New York Knicks. In addition to trying to keep their tournament hopes alive, the Knicks will also be hoping to avenge their playoff series loss against Miami from last summer.

The Heat are rolling in the NBA odds, having won nine of their last 10 games. However, this is also the fourth game of a five-game road trip, and they’re beginning to wear down from injuries.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Heat vs. Knicks believe Jalen Brunson should show out from long-range in South Beach.

Heat vs Knicks odds

Heat vs Knicks predictions

An NBA player can be almost anything.

They can be tall, fast, or slow. They can be selfish or altruistic. Conservative or flashy. A solo act or connective tissue. And any one of them can be good, because of, or in spite of those traits.

The only universal trait of a superstar in the NBA is the drive to iterate, innovate, and improve. Few who stand still stay in the league for very long, and nobody climbs the mountaintop of being an All-Star caliber player without patiently adding to their game year after year.

Jalen Brunson has never been an All-Star, but if we’re going by his willingness and ability to improve his game, that day is coming. Brunson’s project over the summer was clearly to invest in his ability as a 3-point shooter, and he and the New York Knicks are reaping the benefits of his diligence.

Brunson has made his living as an unconventional throwback guard. A midrange assassin who works inside the paint, using crafty footwork and otherworldly touch to score amongst the trees. And he’s been elite at that set of skills.

But now he’s transforming into a monster from outside as well. Brunson is a career 39.3% 3-point shooter, and now he’s up to 6.7 attempts per game over last year's previous career high of 4.7.

He’s hitting 47.9% of them so far and is also taking more difficult shots, including pulling up off the dribble in pick and roll and in transition. Few players have made such a drastic single-year leap in one skill as Brunson has, and it happens to be the single defining skill of All-NBA guards in the modern era.

Luckily for Brunson, the Miami Heat invite the shots that he is hunting. Just like the Knicks, Miami permits opposing teams to try and beat them with the long ball in order to wall off the paint. The Heat are Bottom-5 in attempts from above the break and Bottom-10 in opponent corner threes attempted.

Brunson is 22-41 from three in just his last five outings, good enough for just shy of 4.5 per game. He also hit six threes in two straight during that span.

All signs suggest that this is the new normal, not an aberration, and I’m betting this prop until it sees major adjustment.

My best bet: Jalen Brunson Over 2.5 threes (-115)

Heat vs Knicks same-game parlay

Jalen Brunson Over 2.5 threes

RJ Barrett Over 1.5 threes

Quentin Grimes Over 1.5 threes

Along with doubling down on our best bet, I’m tailing two other Knicks guards to hit their 3-pointer props.

RJ Barrett’s shooting improvement has also been one of the stories of the season for New York. His improvement is so drastic that it does not yet feel quite as real as Brunson’s leap, but you can’t argue with the results. RJ has missed some time with illness and injury, but when he’s been on the court, he’s shooting a scorching 49% from deep and taking 5.4 shots from downtown per game.

Meanwhile, Quentin Grimes is only shooting 36.2% from deep this season, but his mechanics are way too good to pass up. While Grimes missed all six of his attempts last time out, that was his first game back on the court after suffering a wrist sprain. Prior to that, he’d hit two or more in four straight.

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Heat vs Knicks spread and Over/Under analysis

Although the Heat were able to trounce the Cleveland Cavaliers without Bam Adebayo’s services, he’s essential to their play against the Knicks. The Cavaliers were without Donovan Mitchell and on a back-to-back, while the Knicks are fully healthy and have been off since Monday. The Knicks have the better record against the spread as well, going 8-4-2 ATS overall on the season.

The uncertainty about Bam’s availability, who is officially questionable, makes the value on this line hard to gauge. The spread opened with New York getting just -2.5, but that’s steadily grown to as high as -6 at some sportsbooks. That suggests to me a certain amount of confidence that Bam isn’t going to play, but without further info on what exactly is troubling his hip, I’m not willing to wager on it.

Last summer’s playoff series between the Heat and the Knicks was one of the lowest scoring in recent history. It was a series played in the mud, where the total’s regularly went under 200 points.

So it’s no surprise that oddsmakers have set expectations low for this one, with lines opening at a paltry 209.5. That’s risen a touch at some sportsbooks, and is currently available at between 211 and 211.5, and could see a further bump if Adebayo is ruled out before tip off.

That said, the Knicks have had the league’s best offense over the last seven games. Their 124.6 offensive rating would blow the best in league’s history out of the water over a full season, and it’s largely because they’ve taken their formula of offensive rebounding and low turnovers and married it to outrageous perimeter shooting led by Brunson.