Heat vs. Nuggets NBA Finals odds, spread and series props

Mass Live

29 May 2023

Heat vs. Nuggets NBA Finals odds, spread and series props

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No matter which team winds up winning the NBA Finals, history will be made. The Denver Nuggets are playing in the first-ever NBA Finals since the franchise entered the association via the 1976 NBA-ABA merger. Naturally, a title would also be a franchise first.

Meanwhile, while the Miami Heat own multiple NBA championships, this time, they are trying to become champions as the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference. Only one other eight seed has reached the NBA Finals. That was the 1998-99 New York Knicks. They lost in five games to the San Antonio Spurs.

The lowest seed to win the NBA Finals was the 1994-95 Houston Rockets. They were the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference when they beat the Orlando Magic and former Celtics legend Shaquille O’Neal for the title.

It’s the Nuggets that oddsmakers are confidently backing to be the team making history. Denver is an overwhelming -400 odds-on favorite to win the title. Miami can be had at an underdog betting line of +290.

Game 1 of the best-of-seven NBA Finals is set for Thursday, June 1 (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC).

The Nuggets are 6-0 straight up over their last six games and 4-2 against the spread. More significantly, at Denver, the Nuggets are a perfect 8-0 SU in the playoffs. That’s important, because Denver holds the home-court advantage for the NBA Finals.

Overall, the Nuggets are 53-43-1 ATS this season. Only Boston (56) covered more often this season. At home, the Nuggets are 30-18-1 ATS, tied with Golden State for the most home covers.

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Miami is a disappointing 21-28-2 ATS at home this season. The Heat aren’t much better on the road, going 21-27-1 ATS. Denver is 23-25-0 ATS in away games. The Nuggets are also 9-1 SU in their last 10 games in which they’ve been the betting favorite.

Head to head, Denver is 9-1 both SU and ATS in the last 10 meetings with the Heat. The Nuggets are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games against Miami. Six of the last seven Heat vs. Nuggets games have gone over the total.

The Nuggets are the better team and they are the more well-rested team, which at this late juncture of the postseason is a vital quality to possess. Everyone is beaten up and tired at this stage. Any down time you can garner is invaluable.

Denver hasn’t played a game since sweeping the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference final on May 22. Miami squandered a 3-0 lead on Boston, allowing the Celtics to force a Game 7 before finally closing out the Eastern Conference final via a 103-84 victory.

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Miami has rode on the back of power forward Jimmy Butler throughout this playoff run. Playoff Jimmy is averaging a career-high 28.5 points per game in these playoffs. No one else is getting more than 17 points per game, though.

Meanwhile, Denver can count on the 1-2 punch of center Nikola Jokic and guard Jamal Murray. Jokic is contributing 29.9 ppg, while Murray is scoring 27.7. Six Denver players are scoring in double digits.

Series Pick: Denver Nuggets (-400).

A correct series outcome prop at FanDuel Sportsbook has Denver winning in five games as the +240 favorite. That’s followed by Denver in seven (+350) and then Nuggets in six (+430). A Denver sweep is at +600

Odds on any Miami successful outcome are all at longer lines than that. The Heat in six games is at +700. Miami in seven is showing odds of +850. The betting line on Heat in five is +2000, while a Miami sweep is offering betting odds of +3900.

In straight bet on total series games without picking a winning team, five games is the +195 chalk. Seven games is at +220, while six games is opening at a betting line of +240. Wagering on a sweep with garner odds of +500.

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Jokic is the odds-on -300 favorite to be earning the NBA Finals MVP nod. Butler is at +320, with Murray next at +1300.

Caesars Sportsbook is offering a prop on Jokic averaging a triple-double for the NBA Finals. It’s -125 that he does it and -105 that he won’t. He’s +2000 to record a triple-double in each game of the NBA Finals. You can also take prop action on Jokic scoring 40 points in at least one game of the NBA Finals. That’s providing a betting line of +150.

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