Heat vs. Pelicans prediction, odds, pick, how to watch

It is time to continue our NBA odds series with a Miami Heat vs. New Orleans Pelicans prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.

The Miami Heat will visit the New Orleans Pelicans to start the second half of the season. It is time to continue our NBA odds series with a Heat-Pelicans prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.

The Heat won four of their five games before the All-Star break, including two wins over the Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers as underdogs. It's not a good sign for the rest of the NBA that the Heat culture is reemerging before the playoff stretch run begins.

The Pelicans' run down the final stretch of the first half has made them look like another contender in the Western Conference. They won seven of eight games before the break, but it's worth noting that they were heavy favorites in four of those games.

Here are the NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

NBA Odds: Heat-Pelicans Odds

Miami Heat: +3.5 (-110)

Moneyline: +135

New Orleans Pelicans: -3.5 (-110)

Moneyline: -160

Over: 220.5 (-110)

Under: 220.5 (-110)

How to Watch Heat vs. Pelicans

Time: 8 PM ET/5 PM PT

TV: Bally Sports

Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread/Win

The Heat are where they want to be in the Eastern Conference. They've thrived on being the spoiler come playoff time and might finish close to a play-in seed. Their culture prides itself on being the underdog and winning games they aren't supposed to win. That winning culture is evident again this season, as they hold a 15-12 record both overall and against the spread. The Heat have a worse record than the Pelicans over their last ten games but are 7-3 against the spread. The Pelicans have only covered the spread in five of their past ten.

The Pelicans haven't been able to handle the Heat since 2018. These teams have played ten games since 2018, with Miami winning nine and covering the spread in eight. The Pelicans will also face the Heat on the second night of a back-to-back. The Pelicans' post-All-Star break schedule started by hosting the Houston Rockets on Thursday night.

Why The Pelicans Could Cover The Spread/Win

The Pelicans are a very similar team to the Heat in record. The Pelicans don't hold an edge whether on the road or at home, boasting a 16-10 home record and a 17-12 road record. The Pelicans get an opportunity to get back in the swing of things on Thursday night when they host the Houston Rockets. It won't be easy for the Heat to shake the rust off in their first game since February 14th, which can help the Pelicans jump out to an early lead. The issue for the Pelicans is that the Heat rely on defense, which is easier to find than offense.

Final Heat-Pelicans Prediction & Pick

This is an even matchup when it comes to our usual betting strategy. Neither team has a decided edge at home or on the road, and both teams are top-ten in defense and average on the offensive end. The total was under four straight Heat games heading into the All-Star Break and eight of their last ten. The total went under in six of the Pelicans' last ten games.

The Heat winning hasn't been the only common trend when these teams face each other over the past ten games. The under has hit in eight of those ten games. In a league where both teams rarely score less than 100 points, the Pelicans haven't scored more than 100 against the Heat since March 6th, 2020. The Pelicans aren't the only team that failed on the offensive end, as the Heat have scored less than 113 points in nine of those ten.

The stretch run is when the Heat begin locking down their defense, and they will be shaking off the rust for the early portions of the game. In the later portion of the game, the Pelicans may be fighting fatigue after playing 24 hours earlier. Both scenarios will help the total stay under in this game.

Final Heat-Pelicans Prediction & Pick: Under 220.5 (-110)

Nathanial Duffett is a writer for ClutchPoints and a sports junkie at heart, especially for the Boston sports scene. In his spare time, he coaches hockey and is also a Hockey Scout at FCHockey and NeutralZone. Whether it's covering the NHL, MLB, NBA, NFL, or College Football and Basketball, there is not a sport Nathanial isn't able to discuss.