Heat vs. Raptors NBA Betting Odds, Prediction & Trends

The Miami Heat head to Toronto to face the Raptors on Wednesday night at 7:30 PM ET. Can the Heat cover the 3.5-point spread as road underdogs? Check out our Heat vs. Raptors betting prediction to get today’s winner.

The Miami Heat are 11-9 straight up in the regular season this year. They are 9-11 ATS this season.

The Toronto Raptors are 9-11 straight up in the regular season this year. They are 10-9-1 ATS this season.

573 Miami Heat (+3.5) at 574 Toronto Raptors (-3.5); o/u 219.5

7:30 p.m. ET, Wednesday, December 6, 2023

Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON

Our NBA Public Betting Information page indicates that 70% of public bettors are currently backing the Heat when it comes to the spread. This information is subject to change throughout the day, however, so be sure to check the link so you’re receiving the most up-to-date public betting data.

Heat point guard Tyler Herro (ankle), center Bam Adebayo (hip), and small forward Haywood Highsmith (back) will all miss Wednesday night’s road game with the Raptors. The listed trio did not travel with the team to Toronto, as Miami will be back home on Friday. 

Herro is averaging a team-high 22.9 points per game this year while Adebayo is third on the team in scoring with 22.3 points per game on the campaign. Jaime Jaquez, Orlando Robinson, and Duncan Robinson are all candidates to receive more playing time due to the Heat’s injury situation on Wednesday.

Raptors forward Scottie Barnes did all he could, but it wasn’t enough to secure the win against the Knicks on Friday night. Barnes posted a stat line of 29 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists, and 5 steals in his team’s 119-106 home loss to New York last week. He is second on the club in scoring with 19.6 points per game this year.

Toronto power forward Pascal Siakam also had a solid game against New York on Friday. The New Mexico State alum logged 21 points, 8 rebounds, and 3 assists across 34 minutes of action. Siakam leads the Raptors in scoring with 20.0 points per game this season.

Toronto is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against Miami.

Toronto is 31-21-1 ATS as the home team since the start of last season.

Miami is 2-6 ATS after a loss this season. That’s the second-worst mark in the league.

Toronto is 3-0 ATS when playing on 4+ days of rest since the start of last season.

Miami is 11-17 ATS when playing on 2 or 3 days of rest since the beginning of last season.

This game boils down to two factors in my opinion: rest and availability. Toronto hasn’t played since Friday, which means they are playing on 4 days of rest in this contest. They won’t have that many days off in a row until the All-Star break in mid-February. The time off could give the team a chance to rest, recharge, and maybe iron out some issues they’ve had through the early part of the season.

Miami won’t have two of their top three scorers (Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo) available for this game. That means the leading scorers available for Miami after Jimmy Butler are Duncan Robinson, Jaime Jaquez, and Josh Richardson. No other Heat player averages over 10 points per game. For the above reasons, I like Toronto to win and cover at home after the long layoff on Wednesday night.