Heat vs. Mavericks NBA Betting Odds, Prediction & Trends

The Miami Heat travel to Dallas to take on the Mavericks on Thursday night at 7:30 PM ET on TNT. Can the Mavericks cover the 4.5-point spread as home favorites? Keep reading for our Heat vs. Mavericks betting prediction.

The Miami Heat are 35-26 straight up in the regular season this year. They are 30-30-1 ATS this season.

The Dallas Mavericks are 34-28 straight up in the regular season this year. They are 32-30 ATS this season.

551 Miami Heat (+4.5) at 552 Dallas Mavericks (-4.5); o/u 229.5

7:30 p.m. ET, Thursday, March 7, 2024

American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX

TV: TNT

Our NBA Public Betting Information page indicates that 62% of public bettors are currently backing the Heat when it comes to the spread. This information is subject to change throughout the day, however, so be sure to check the link so you’re receiving the most up-to-date public betting data.

Heat shooting guard Josh Richardson will miss the rest of the season due to a dislocated right shoulder that required surgery. Richardson had been averaging 9.9 points per game in 25.7 minutes per contest prior to the injury.

Miami power forward Kevin Love (heel) and shooting guard Tyler Herro (knee) will sit out the Heat’s two-game road trip on Thursday and Friday. Herro is the bigger loss of the two as he’s averaging 20.8 points per game in 36 starts this year. Heat forwards Duncan Robinson and Jaime Jaquez Jr. could both see increased run in the absence of Herro and Josh Richardson on Thursday. 

Mavericks point guard Luka Doncic (ankle) and power forward Maxi Kleber (knee) are both listed as probable to play in Thursday’s home date with the Heat. Doncic is having a spectacular season in 2024 as he’s leading the league in scoring with 34.6 points per game. Doncic is also stuffing the stat sheet with 9.0 rebounds, 9.8 assists, and 1.4 steals per game on the campaign.

Newly acquired Dallas power forward P.J. Washington has been making an impact since coming over from Charlotte at the trade deadline. The Kentucky alum is averaging 12.4 points and 5.4 rebounds per contest in 10 games of action for the Mavericks since February 10. He’s recorded at least 11 points in 7 of his 10 games for Dallas since the deadline. 

Miami is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

Miami is 18-12-1 ATS as the road team this season.

Dallas is 9-12 ATS as a home favorite this season.

Dallas is 10-13 ATS in non-conference games this season.

The Heat are trending upwards. Miami is 11-3 straight up in their last 14 games. They went 6-1 on the road straight up during that same stretch. For the season, the Heat are 20-13-1 ATS after a win and 13-7 ATS as a road underdog. Although Miami won’t have Tyler Herro or Kevin Love for this matchup, they are one of the deepest teams in the league. It also helps that Miami leads the league in scoring defense on the road with only 106.8 points per game allowed away from the Kaseya Center.

Conversely, Dallas is sputtering. The Mavericks are 1-5 straight up and 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games. The problem has been the defense. Dallas is allowing 118.3 points per game this season, which ranks 24th in the NBA. What’s worse, the Mavericks are just 14-19 ATS at home this year. For all of the above reasons, I think Miami covers the number on the road in Dallas on Thursday night.