Heat vs Suns Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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05 January 2024

Heat vs Suns Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

The Suns could be short-handed again tonight (what else is new?) and our NBA picks think it's a perfect time for Heat Culture to pounce, even on the road.

If Kevin Durant (hamstring) isn’t a go Friday night against the Miami Heat, the Phoenix Suns could be in trouble.

The Heat already know they won’t have Jimmy Butler (foot), but you know what? It doesn’t really matter, as Miami is among the best teams in the league at rolling with those injury punches.

Still, the Heat are somehow 4-point underdogs in the NBA odds, maybe because they’re wrapping up a five-game West Coast trek in the Valley of the Sun. Phoenix, meanwhile, saw its four-game win streak snap a the hands of the Clippers.

What wager should you be targeting? Read below for my free Heat vs. Suns preview, and check out my best free NBA picks for Friday, January 5.

Heat vs Suns odds

Heat vs Suns predictions

After dropping consecutive road games to both the Utah Jazz and L.A. Clippers, Miami evened its trip record to 2-2 with a 110-96 win over the Lakers.

Hard to believe, but that’s just the second time all year the Heat have held an opponent to under 100 points in a game.

Their defense, sixth in the league in points allowed at 111.5, held the Lakers to 42.2% shooting for the game, including a brutal 4-for-30 from 3-point range, a 13.3% clip.

Their offense, as always, is a grind 'em-out affair, as the Heat average just 112.9 points per game, which ranks 23rd in the NBA.

Miami doesn’t know the meaning of an easy bucket: It averages just 11.4 fast-break points per game, which ranks 29th in the league.

You’d think Phoenix would get out and run a bit more, but it’s right there with Miami, 26th in transition scoring, putting up just 12.1 points per game.

I guess it helps when you have two of the best iso scorers in the NBA on your side in Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, with another All-Star-level bucket-getter in Bradley Beal.

Unfortunately, that power trio has played a grand total of four games together this season and a whopping 65 minutes combined.

Two out of three stars, for the most part, works when you’re beating up on the Rockets, Hornets, Magic, and Trail Blazers, as the Suns did en route to a four-game win streak.

But leveling up, like they did against the surging Clippers, you get a 131-122 loss and not enough depth or scoring to outweigh your problems.

This will be the first of two games between these teams this season, with Miami having taken three of the last four head-to-heads.

I think the Heat’s defense travels, despite being road-weary on their trip finale. The Under has hit in four of the last six head-to-heads, but here’s a neato stat: Those last six games all had totals below 219.5.

Those extra points are a bounty, and even if Durant is a go and Beal does actually play his fifth straight game, look for this one to stay low.

My best bet: Under 229.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)

Heat vs Suns same-game parlay

Under 229.5 points

Bradley Beal Over 20.5 points

Jaime Jaquez Jr Over 15.5 points

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This feels like the right time to target Beal, who has played in just 10 games this season. He’s easily on his best streak, both in consecutive games played and scoring output.

After scoring six points in his return from a two-week absence in a win over the Hornets, the ex-Wizard has scored 20+ points in three straight games.

He didn’t play well at all against the Clippers, shooting 7-for-20 in 41 minutes for 21 points, adding five rebounds and four assists. Beal also missed all six of his 3-point attempts.

But he’s been pretty good against the Heat. In his last six head-to-heads with Miami, Beal has scored 21 or more five times, averaging 24.2 points per game on 46.3% shooting.

I think even if Durant does sneak back into the lineup, Beal should have plenty of opportunities to cash Over 20.5.

The third leg of this SGP will take a flier on Heat rook Jaime Jaquez Jr, who has been an exceptional plug-and-play guy from Day 1 with Miami.

He’s shooting 50.4% from the field and averaging 13.8 points per game. Since Dec 1, however, Jaquez has upped his numbers, to 16.1 per contest.

Last time out, he was 7-for-14 for 16 points and eight assists in their win over the Lakers.

With Butler out again, Jaquez should find ample opportunities to get to his total: He’s gone for better than 15.5 points four times in his last six outings, missing a fifth by a single bucket.

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Heat vs Suns spread and Over/Under analysis

The spread has stayed in and around the 4-point range since opening on Thursday. Both teams haven’t been a great bet against the spread.

The Suns are just 12-21-1 ATS, including a lowly 6-14-0 mark at home — that’s the third-worst mark in the NBA. They have failed to cover in three of their last four.

Miami checks in at 16-18-0 ATS, but tied for the most road wins in the NBA with the 11-8 Dallas Mavericks, the Heat are also 11-8-0 ATS on the road.

After opening at 228.5, the total has risen already by a point, perhaps buoyed by the possibility of KD cracking the lineup.

Phoenix has seen the Over go 19-15-0 in tits games, while the Heat’s Over record is 16-18-0.