Heisman: Betting True Contenders

With Halloween approaching, it seems appropriate to take a look at the latest Heisman odds and separate the candidates into three betting groups: pretenders, contenders but no value in betting them, and contenders with a path to the podium in New York City and an invite to the most exclusive of clubs.

Lets begin with the latest odds from BetMGM:

J.J. McCarthy, Michigan Wolverines +240Michael Penix Jr., Washington Huskies +300Jayden Daniels, LSU Tigers +325Jordan Travis, Florida State Seminoles +900Dillon Gabriel, Oklahoma Sooners +1200Bo Nix, Oregon Ducks +1600

Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State Buckeyes +1800

Pretenders

Jordan Travis

Florida State Quarterback

Travis is completing 65% of his passes. He has thrown for nearly 1800 yards. The senior has thrown 15 touchdown passes and run for five others while tossing just two interceptions. He has led the Seminoles to a perfect 7-0 record to this point on the season.
Travis has led Florida State back to relevancy. Yet he is on this list simply because of the lack of respect the ACC gets in the market. FSU’s dominant win over LSU to open the season is looking better every weekend, and yet the credit has not translated to the Heisman candidacy of Jordan Travis.

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Bo Nix

Oregon Quarterback

The senior signal caller for the Ducks has put up numbers this season that make Auburn fans wince. Nix has thrown for just shy of 2100 yards completing 78% of his passes including 19 touchdowns and just a single interception in leading Oregon to a 6-1 record.
Those are elite numbers. The opportunity to secure at least a spot on the podium in New York, however, slipped out of reach as Oregon missed the game-tying field goal at Husky Stadium a couple weeks ago. Blame Dan Lanning if you prefer, but Bo Nix was not great that day either. Collectively, too many flat-out bad decisions and poor execution by the Ducks as a whole will keep Nix from getting a room at the Heisman House.

Contenders: No Value

J.J. McCarthy

Michigan Quarterback

The sudden favorite in the race is J.J. McCarthy. His stats lie somewhere between those of Jordan Travis and Bo Nix. The junior signal-caller has thrown for 1800 yards completing 78% of his passes including 18 TDs against just 3 INTs. He has also rushed for three touchdowns.
McCarthy’s candidacy appears to be based, however, on the idea the Heisman should go to the best player on the best team. If that were the case, Georgia’s Brock Bowers or one of many from the defensive side of the ball for the Bulldogs would have won the past couple of years. His numbers are exceptional, but not elite, especially when playing on a team whose defense dominates the headlines. Two other factors to consider before you decide to sprinkle something on McCarthy: 1) his odds opened at +2500 so the value is long gone, and 2) the threat of a potential scandal with the program may deter enough voters to keep the junior signal-caller from claiming the prize no matter how he plays down the stretch.

Dillon Gabriel

Oklahoma Quarterback

The unequivocal leader of the Sooners, Gabriel is looking to make it three Heismans in the last seven years at the University of Oklahoma. His numbers warrant a serious look. He is completing 71% of his passes and has thrown for over 2100 yards including 19 touchdowns against just three interceptions. He has also rushed for three touchdowns.Every Heisman winner has had their own “Heisman Moment” during their campaign and Gabriel had his leading the Sooners down the field for a touchdown in the waning seconds of the Red River Rivalry.

Before going further, let’s all agree that Dillon Gabriel should be firmly in the legit contender for more than just a trip to the Big Apple. His stats are greater than every candidate discussed in this piece. In addition, he will more than likely get another shot at the Texas Longhorns in the Big 12 Title Game. However, the Big 12 is viewed as comparable to the ACC: very good at the very top but the drop-off in quality is quick after about the top three teams. The hype machine needs to get rolling if Dillon Gabriel is to return the Heisman to the University of Oklahoma.

Contenders: Worth a Taste

Jayden Daniels

LSU Tigers Quarterback

His stats are video-gamesque: nearly 2600 yards passing while completing 73% with 25 TD passes, five rushing TDs, and a mere three INTs. That said, Daniels is worth a play ONLY if you believe LSU can run the table the rest of the season. That means winning at Bama in two weeks and in the SEC Championship. Heisman voting closes on December 4 so that win in the SEC Championship would send a late message to voters as they took a final look at their ballots. If you believe Jayden Daniels (+350) can lead the Tigers to those wins, a play on the LSU Senior is worth that sprinkle. This one will be a sweat.

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Michael Penix, Jr.

Washington Huskies Quarterback

The odds-on favorite for the majority of the season, Penix dropped to 2nd on the board following a rough outing at home against Arizona State this past weekend that saw him fail to throw a touchdown pass while getting picked twice. Even with that outing, the senior has thrown for almost 2600 yards while completing 71% of his passes. The Huskies’ signal-caller has tossed 20 touchdown passes against five interceptions.The reason to jump on the Penix bandwagon prior to this weekend?

The opponent this week is Stanford and that should mean a return to video game stats for Penix. At his peak at BetMGM, Penix’ odds were -145. Currently at +300, you will not see those odds again unless the Huskies perfect season disappears at which point your Penix tickets will be coasters.

Marvin Harrison, Jr.

Ohio State Wide Receiver

Maserati Marv is averaging six catches for 110 yards with almost a TD per game. The stats of an All-American but why is he worth the hype machine has been humming all season. His biggest game to date - 11 catches for 162 yards and a touchdown - was on one of the season’s biggest stages this past weekend against Penn State.Heisman voters love stats but they love a good narrative to go with those numbers.The son of a Hall of Famer, Harrison is the top wide receiver prospect in the nation and has been for a couple years at least. Those years of attention have revved up the hype machine.Its in overdrive following the showing against Penn State.

Now let’s play the story out. Marvin Harrison Jr. will cruise through the rest of the season until the finale at The Big House. Sure, he’ll pile up numbers, but it will all come down to the Big Game. He walks into Michigan and the Buckeyes knock off the Wolverines thanks in large part to another monster game from Harrison. Maybe he strikes a Heisman pose. And it’s not like it’s Ja’Marr Chase catching darts from Joe Burrow. Hardly! Maserati Marv is pulling in passes thrown by a solid but hardly elite first year starter in quarterback Kyle McCord. He is an elite route runner with a massive catch radius.

Enjoy the stretch run this season and the race for the Heisman…and enjoy the sweat.