2023 Heisman Odds: USC's Caleb Williams a heavy favorite heading into Week 6
The college football season is flying by.
This is Week 6, meaning we’re about halfway through 2023.
Soon enough, we’ll be in the middle of bowl season, with the College Football Playoff right around the corner.
We’ll also be in the middle of the Heisman Trophy season, awarded in New York City on December 10th.
Who are the favorites at the halfway point? Is there any sports betting value?
Heisman odds: The favorites
Here are the current 10 favorites to win the Heisman at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Caleb Williams continues to hold off the field as the outright betting favorite to repeat as Heisman Trophy winner, now sitting with odds shorter than 2-to-1.
Williams has thrown 21 touchdown passes so far, five more than any other quarterback in college football, to only one interception.
However, Williams is vulnerable atop the markets.
Williams has only thrown for 1,600 yards through five games, 400 fewer than the FBS leader.
Per Pro Football Focus, Williams has made only nine Big Time Throws to seven Turnover Worthy Plays, meaning he’s due for some touchdown-to-turnover regression.
USC has also played a dreadfully easy schedule, boosting Williams’ and the Trojans’ numbers.
The Trojans host Arizona this Saturday but take on Notre Dame, Utah, Cal, Washington and Oregon in the following five weeks. That’s a brutal stretch of games.
And given how porous their defense is, USC is also vulnerable as a team. If USC loses a game, that’ll damage Williams’ overall Heisman case.
Speaking of Washington… Right behind Williams on the oddsmakers’ Heisman Trophy big board is Huskies’ quarterback Michael Penix Jr.
However, by Pro Football Focus’s passing grades and total passing yards this season (2,004), Penix has been the best player in college football.
By Success Rate, Washington has been the most efficient offense in College Football.
If I were voting right now, Penix would be my vote, given he’s been the nation’s best quarterback for the nation’s best offense.
However, it’s hard to bet on him right now, given Penix’s Heisman case relies on beating Oregon in Week 7.
Meanwhile, if Bo Nix and Oregon win that game, the Ducks’ quarterback could leap-frog Penix on the odds boards.
What a massive game.
The Ducks are currently first in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play and sixth in EPA per Play allowed, meaning they’re college football’s best team by EPA per play margin.
As Oregon’s undisputed leader, the team’s performance gives Nix a strong Heisman case.
For what it’s worth, the Ducks are 5-0 against the spread (ATS) this season, while Washington is 3-2. However, Washington has played the more difficult schedule.
Moving from the Pac-12 and to the Big 12, other Heisman contenders in the betting markets include Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers and Oklahoma quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who play each other this week in the Red River Showdown.
Texas is one of the best teams in college football, but I doubt that Ewers will finish with the numbers to compete with the Pac-12 quarterback elite.
Betting on College Football?
Now that Oklahoma is 5-0 straight up and 5-0 ATS, Gabriel’s Heisman odds have dropped from 40-to-1 to 16-to-1.
Oklahoma has the second-highest ATS margin in the sport (behind Texas State), covering the number by an average of 14 points per game.
Gabriel has led that team by throwing for 1,600 yards and 15 touchdowns with a whopping 74.5% completion rate.
If Oklahoma beats Texas this weekend, Gabriel will jump further up the odds boards. If you like Oklahoma in that game, I’d also consider re-upping on Gabriel in the Heisman market, as the two wagers are somewhat correlated.
Unfortunately, I have no other recommended wagers for this week’s Heisman odds update.
Other Heisman contenders in the betting markets include Florida State’s Jordan Travis (+1600), Miami’s Tyler Van Dyke (+3000), Washington State’s Cameron Ward (+3000) and Michigan’s JJ McCarthy (+3300).
