Horse racing: Lance Noble believes Luberon can turn shocking dress rehearsal into a 1000 Guineas win

Trainer Lance Noble believes Luberon can turn one of the worst possible dress rehearsals into a 1000 Guineas win at Riccarton tomorrow.

And he says the key could be red hot jockey Warren Kennedy.

Kennedy has been on fire in the last month and is riding Riccarton beautifully during this carnival, winning the 2000 Guineas on Crocetti and Metropolitan Handicap on Nest Egg last Saturday.

Nest Egg return as the New Zealand Cup favourite tomorrow and clearly the horse to beat but Luberon’s form has been anything but perfect as she stunned punters by going walkabout in the Soliloquy Stakes at Pukekohe last start.

The race contained many of tomorrow’s favourites and Luberon looked to have them covered until she shied away from a not overly-aggressive tap with the whip and veered dramatically to the left for visiting Victorian apprentice Celine Gaudray.

Luberon collided with the outside rail before actually finishing the race, only losing some skin and Gaudray thankfully being okay.

Impendabelle went on to win a rough-house finish to that very odd race beating the luckless pair of Mary Shan and Molly Bloom, with Tulsi in between them and they will all also be at Riccarton tomorrow.

After losing her bearings at Pukekohe, Luberon had to trial before being allowed to race again and passed that test at Cambridge so now finds herself in the strange position of potentially starting favourite for a group 1 after nearly ending her racing career, or worse, the start before.

“I think she will be fine,” said Noble.

“She trialled well in between horses a few days after the Pukekohe race and she has travelled down here well.

“But one of the key factors is having Warren back on her because he knows her so well, whereas obviously Celine couldn’t.

“She can be a funny filly but Warren will be awake to that.”

Noble does concede that Luberon’s antics at Pukekohe could see a change of riding tactics tomorrow.

“She can often go forward but I don’t think she wants to be leading or outside the leader and left in front a long way from home with that big crowd to look at,” he told the Herald.

“We rode her back in the field in the trial and while it is Warren’s call I’d like to see her with cover and tracking the right horse into the race before being asked for her best.

“I think it is the sort of field with plenty of good fillies to follow.”

Noble nailed that as the Guineas has plenty and depth and quite a few of the favourites look likely to relish the step up to 1600m.

Three who could thrive on it are Molly Bloom, Mary Shan and Star Of Justice while Bozo ran home well against the boys in the 2000 Guineas last Saturday.

If any of them can get a smooth passage into the race and clear air from the 400m they could roll over the top of their rivals without surprising.

Chantilly Lace has also been tough all spring and wouldn’t mind a dogfight tomorrow while Impendabelle couldn’t do more than win the Soliloquy and is better drawn than many of the favourites.

The tempo of the race could be a crucial deciding factor as, with Noble’s suggestion Luberon may be ridden with cover, there could be less early pressure than expected and some of the other freegoers in the race have drawn wide.

In a field so big and even a good tempo would be a big positive to open up the gaps and reduce the chances of the Guineas becoming messy.

Still, it it hard to imagine it being messier than Pukekohe was. Especially for Luberon.