Orchestral’s comeback: From Gold Trial Stakes defeat to Karaka Millions spotlight
Roger James has a pretty good idea of what he will say to champion jockey James McDonald before he legs him up on Orchestral for the $1.5 million TAB Karaka Millions Three-Year-Old on Saturday.
“Probably not much,” says James, who co-trains the exciting filly with Robert Wellwood.
Orchestral has been the enormous mover in the market for Saturday’s 1600m showstopper, having started the season with a big reputation before suffering a crushing defeat in the Gold Trail Stakes at Hastings in September.
Four or five horses have headed the market for the KM3 since then but Orchestral roared back to second favouritism with firstly a close second to key rival Lupo Solitario and then beating him easily at Pukekohe on New Year’s Day.
She now finds herself the $4 second favourite behind 1000 Guineas winner Molly Bloom at $3. Ironically the pair met on their debuts at Avondale last Anzac Day and Ochestral beat Molly Bloom home by a head. It is the only time they have met.
Now they head to our richest race as the two fillies to beat, both have world-class, Australian-based jockeys aboard.
McDonald will ride Orchestral for the first time and Blake Shinn partners Molly Bloom as he did when she won the Hallmark Stud Eight Carat Classic on Boxing Day.
Last time James booked expat superstar James McDonald for a three-year-old filly it didn’t go so well. Not for McDonald at least. He was supposed to ride the stable’s wonderful Prowess in the group 1 Vinery Stakes at Rosehill last March but McDonald got suspended and had to watch as Prowess and Mark Zahra cruised home.
But way, way before that McDonald and James combined with a truly great filly in Silent Achiever, with whom they won the Waikato Guineas, Avondale Guineas and NZ Derby within the space of 28 days in 2012.
“We all know how good James is so I don’t think I will be saying too much on Saturday,” says James.
“I definitely won’t ring him this week to go through it and there really isn’t much point giving him instructions on the day because he is so well prepared he will already have a plan.”
What James and Wellwood will tell McDonald, as long as nothing changes in the next few days, is the daughter of Savabeel is spot on.
“We had the option of taking her to Ellerslie last Friday for a track gallop but we decided to stay home and use the plough and her work was perfect,” says James.
“She worked great again today (Tuesday) and we couldn’t be happier.
“We know luck will play a part because she probably isn’t a filly who can be ridden handy and is more comfortable being allowed to find her feet.”
That is also how favourite Molly Bloom also seems most potent at this early stage of her career while rider Ryan Elliot is adamant the best version of third favourite Lupo Solitario will be when he is the hunter and not the hunted.
That could leave the natural on-pacer Pendragon relatively unchallenged on the speed and as the horse, they all have to run down on Saturday.
Being by US Navy Flag, who was a brilliant two-year-old and a group 1 winner at three over 1200m, Pendragon may not instantly sound like a natural miler but his dam was by Epsom Derby winner Pour Moi.
Pendragon was also strong to the line winning the Auckland Guineas over 1400m last start.
He beat Quintessa then and the start before over 1200m and she has gone on to win the group 1 Levin Classic so if he draws well Pendragon could be in front for a long way come Saturday on a track so fast it could suit those hugging the rail.
Tonight’s TAB Karaka Millions barrier draw will be more of a barrier reveal, which is why markets on the three biggest races will be closed for much of today.
The fields for the $1.5million Three-Year-Old, $1 million Two-Year-Old and $1 million Elsdon Park Aotearoa Classic for four-year-olds will be done at the Racing Bureau in Wellington around 10.30am, standard practice for all Saturday New Zealand thoroughbred meetings.
But the make-up of the three major races will be a tightly kept secret until the televised (TAB Trackside) barrier draw reveal at 9pm.
The fields for Saturday’s other three Ellerslie races, the $500,000 Westbury Classic, $225,000 Cambridge Stud Almanzor Trophy and the $225,000 Brighthill Farm Concorde will still be released as usual by 11am.
That will give the TAB bookies the chance to open final field markets on those three races but the markets for the three biggest races will remain closed throughout Wednesday and opened immediately after the draw reveal.
While the situation is rare in New Zealand the same scenario involving a pre-draw then reveal with markets closed is used for the world’s biggest slot race, the Everest in Sydney each October.
What: New Zealand’s richest race meeting.
Where: Ellerslie.
When: Saturday, first of six races 4.19pm.
Highlights: $1.5million TAB Karaka Millions Three-Year-Old, $1million TAB KM Two-Year-Old, $1million Elsdon Park Aotearoa Classic.
What next: Barrier draws for the KM races revealed at 9pm tonight.
Can I go? Not unless you already have a ticket, the meeting is a sell out at 12,000 people.
Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.
