Horse Racing Nation expert picks: Preakness Stakes 2023
Preakness Stakes 2023 anchors the stakes-laden card Saturday at Pimlico. Scheduled to start at 7:01 p.m. EDT, it features the return of Kentucky Derby winner Mage. The son of Good Magic comes into the Preakness after winning the run for the roses with late-running flair.
After the scratch of First Mission on Friday morning, Mage will face off against six other runners, none of whom contested the Kentucky Derby. The leaders among the new faces include National Treasure, who most recently finished fourth in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), and Blazing Sevens, who last finished third in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1).
Below is how the experts at Horse Racing Nation plan to play the Preakness Stakes.
Ed DeRosa, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: No. 1 National Treasure
On the board: No. 3 Mage
Long shot I like: No. 6 Perform
Analysis: First Mission being out made National Treasure's job easier and Mage's job harder. I'll take the longer price and bet that Mage can't catch National Treasure.
Ron Flatter, Ron Flatter Racing Pod
Winner: No. 1 National Treasure
On the board: No. 3 Mage
Long shot I like: No. 6 Perform
Analysis: Two Bs equal one W. Adding blinkers and Baffert, National Treasure should get a loose lead that John Velazquez can take all around the track. Coffeewithchris will keep up until he has no choice but to fade in the backstretch. Mage should make a late run and, yes, might even win. Perform was 0-for-5 going one turn but is 2-for-2 going two, so he looks like the sort of horse who can crash the chalky exacta party.
Jarrod Horak, Best Bets
Winner: No. 1 National Treasure
On the board: No. 3 Mage
Long shot I like: No. 6 Perform
Analysis: National Treasure is healthy again after missing the San Felipe Stakes (G2) with a foot bruise. He exits a useful effort in the Santa Anita Derby and might be able to control the pace from the inside post. He puts blinkers back on and might offer a hint of value. Mage needs an alert start and probably won't get an electric pace to chase this time. He is an underlay after winning the Derby at 15-1. Perform was supplemented to this race for $150,000. He was visually impressive in the Federico Tesio Stakes last time and is clearly on the upswing.
Rowan Ward, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: No. 3 Mage
On the board: No. 5 Red Route One
Long shot I like: No. 6 Perform
Analysis: With the defection of First Mission, this leaves Mage the horse to beat. The price may or may not be right: in early wagering he is hovering at a bettable range (between 9-5 and 2-1), though if he drifts down to his odds-on morning line the value disappears. The most interesting new horse in the field is Perform: he handled a rough trip in the Tesio and such proven connections paying the supplement fee speaks volumes. Neither Red Route One nor National Treasure would surprise for underneath shares in exotics. National Treasure may have the easier trip, but just like Red Route One he has a concerning tendency not to finish the job against classier horses and at least Red Route One got a recent confidence-builder.
