Betting strategy: How to play the 2023 Preakness Stakes

Although it was disappointing to see only seven rivals, none of whom ran in the Kentucky Derby, entered to face Mage in the 2023 Preakness Stakes (G1), there should still be plenty of money available to gamblers willing to take the right stands.

Below are three stands I am willing to take when formulating my bets for the Preakness.

Stand 1 - Mage is a single

This might seem obvious, but many will try to seek value on top instead of underneath. It is better to spend the extra money betting horizontal and vertical wagers multiple times instead of wasting money boxing runners in an exacta or trifecta or playing multiple horses in a Pick 5. It would be unwise to view Mage as a fluke long-shot winner of the Kentucky Derby. Before the Kentucky Derby, he had subpar trips in consecutive races in Florida while running well against the morning-line favorite for the Derby. He has shown ability from the start and continues his improving pattern, fulfilling his tremendous upside.

Mage's 15-1 odds were greatly inflated in the Kentucky Derby. A year after Rich Strike won the Kentucky Derby at 80-1, no horse went off higher than 31-1 this year as everyone wanted to catch another huge price. With so much money going toward hopeless long shots, middle-priced contenders saw their odds float up.

There is no need to overcomplicate this race. Mage just defeated a much better field than he will face on Saturday, he has fewer obstacles this time around and should continue to get better with experience.

Stand 2 - Perform will finish in the top three

With Mage expected to win at a short price, it is vital to find the right long shot underneath. Perform, at 15-1 on the morning line, looks like the perfect horse to key underneath in the exotics. Shug McGaughey is known for his patience with young horses, and this colt looks to be peaking at the right time. He was defeated in his first five races, but all of them were at one turn. He has looked sharp in both of his two-turn wins since then. He encountered a terrible trip in the Federico Tesio but showed the maturity and ability to overcome it. He should relish the added distance and will finish no worse than third.

Stand 3 - Toss Blazing Sevens from all wagers

Blazing Sevens is one of only four horses under 10-1 on the morning line and will take plenty of wagering support because of his high-profile connections of Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz Jr. Unlike his peers, he has not shown any improvement as a 3-year-old. He is a closer who has lost ground in the stretch in all three of his two-turn efforts, calling into question his ability to handle added distance. He was nowhere near Tapit Trice and Verifying in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) while narrowly defeating Sun Thunder and Raise Cain. All four of those horses returned in the Kentucky Derby, with none of them finishing better than seventh. 

Suggested wagers on a $25 budget

First Mission and National Treasure are the other contenders aside from Perform to use underneath Mage. First Mission has the ability and upside to be a factor and should sit a good trip just behind the speed. National Treasure should be the main speed in a race without much of it as Bob Baffert goes for his eighth Preakness win.

$3.50 trifecta: Mage / First Mission, National Treasure / Perform – $7

$3 trifecta: Mage / Perform / First Mission, National Treasure – $6

$1.50 superfecta: Mage / First Mission, Perform / First Mission, Perform, National Treasure / First Mission, Perform, National Treasure, Red Route One – $12