Horses to Watch: 16 run in stakes across the nation
Arabian Lion ran huge when last seen in the Woody Stephens (G1) at Belmont Park, winning by 1 3/4 lengths with a powerful 107 Brisnet speed rating. He looms as a logical win threat while sticking to the same seven-furlong distance for Saturday’s ninth race at Saratoga, the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial (G1, post time 4:19 p.m. EDT).
Caramel Swirl
Winner of the Vagrancy (G3) at Belmont during the spring, Caramel Swirl enters Saturday’s 10th race at Saratoga, the Ballerina Handicap (G1, post time 4:55 p.m.) as a 10-1 long shot. But she finished second in this race last year at odds of 15-1 and ran well against tough company in the Bed o’ Roses (G2) last time out, so don’t count this underrated sprinter out of the mix.
Disarm
Matt Winn (G3) winner Disarm was beaten only 2 1/4 lengths against a deep field in Saratoga’s Jim Dandy (G2) last time out. He didn’t get the best pace setup that day, so if a more favorable scenario unfolds in Saturday’s 12th race at Saratoga, the Travers (G1, post time 6:11 p.m.), Disarm is eligible to outrun his 8-1 morning line odds.
Echo Zulu
The horse to beat in the Ballerina is Echo Zulu, the 7-5 morning line favorite after starting 2023 with blowout victories in the Winning Colors (G3) and Honorable Miss Handicap (G2). The latter victory yielded a gigantic 112 Brisnet speed rating, easily the highest number belonging to any filly or mare in the Ballerina field.
Eda
Nearly two years have passed since 2021 Starlet (G1) winner Eda last lost a race. She’s 2-for-2 this year after battling to first place in the July 4 Great Lady M (G2) at Los Alamitos, which marked her sixth consecutive victory. She’ll have every chance to win again in Sunday’s ninth race at Del Mar, the Rancho Bernardo Handicap (G3, post time 9:00 p.m.).
Elite Power
Last year’s champion male sprinter has won eight consecutive races, including the 2022 Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Last month, he rallied tenaciously nab Saratoga’s Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (G1) by a head over Gunite, and he’ll be expected to take home top honors again in Saturday’s seventh race at Saratoga, the Forego (G1, post time 3:07 p.m.).
Forte
Florida Derby (G1) winner Forte has already defeated many of the rivals he’ll face in the Travers, and he was resilient battling between horses to win the Jim Dandy by a nose. With five straight triple-digit Brisnet speed ratings under his belt, Forte is a picture of consistency and the horse to beat in the Travers.
Goodnight Olive
Reigning Champion Female Sprinter Goodnight Olive won the 2022 Ballerina by 2 3/4 lengths, and she’s a logical contender to defend her title on Saturday. She’s 2-for-3 this year and lacked racing room in her lone defeat, so even though Goodnight Olive worked unexpectedly hard to win the Bed o’ Roses by a neck last time out, she can’t be counted out of the mix while returning to Saratoga.
Gunite
Gunite hasn’t missed the exacta in five starts at Saratoga, most recently finishing second by a head against Elite Power in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt. They’ll get a rematch in the Forego, and the seven-furlong distance could play to Gunite’s strengths since he won the 2021 Hopeful (G1) and finished second in the 2022 H. Allen Jerkens Memorial (G1) over this track and distance.
Mage
The upset Kentucky Derby (G1) winner has reiterated his abundant talent with a pace-troubled third-place finish in the Preakness (G1) and a game second in the Haskell (G1). Mage entered the Haskell off a relatively light work tab and has gotten in a couple of six-furlong workouts in advance of the Travers, so don’t be surprised if he moves forward at Saratoga.
Matareya
Ballerina entrant Matareya struggled when last seen in the Chicago (G3) at Ellis Park, finishing third by a dozen lengths. But Matareya previously wired the Derby City Distaff (G1) at Churchill Downs, and last year she dominated the Acorn (G1) at Belmont Park, so we know this Godolphin homebred is an elite competitor on her best day.
Nest
Last year’s champion 3-year-old filly kicked off 2023 on a high note, beating multiple Grade 1 winner Clairiere by 2 1/4 lengths in Saratoga’s Shuvee (G2). They’ll get a rematch in Friday’s ninth race at Saratoga, the Personal Ensign (G1, post time 5:44 p.m.), and if Nest takes home top honors again, she’ll be well on her way to winning a second Eclipse Award.
New York Thunder
If anyone can beat Arabian Lion in the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial, it’s probably New York Thunder, an unbeaten colt who demolished Saratoga’s Amsterdam (G2) last month by 7 1/2 lengths with a 108 Brisnet speed rating. New York Thunder set a blazing pace that day and will be formidable if he repeats the performance.
Scotland
The wildcard in the Travers is Scotland, a versatile colt who surprisingly employed pacesetting tactics to wire the Curlin at Saratoga last month by 3 1/4 lengths over next-out Smarty Jones (G3) winner Il Miracolo. Don’t count Scotland out of the mix; he figures to sit a favorable stalking trip and has the potential to win if he takes one more step forward.
Spirit of Makena
Spirit of Makena ran into a lot of trouble when finishing last of 12 in the Bing Crosby (G1) at Del Mar last month. He’d previously won three straight sprints in succession, including the Triple Bend (G2) and San Carlos (G3), so he’s eligible to rebound with a clean trip in Saturday’s 10th race at Del Mar, the Pat O’Brien (G2, post time 9:31 p.m.).
The Wine Steward
Two starts, two victories. New York-bred juvenile The Wine Steward hasn’t been challenged so far, dominating his debut against fellow New York-breds before trouncing non-state-restricted company in the Bashford Manor at Churchill Downs. He’s returning to the New York-bred ranks for Sunday’s fourth race at Saratoga, the Funny Cide (post time 2:48 p.m.) and looks formidable on paper.
Off the watch list
Technical Analysis
Faltered as the heavy 5-4 favorite while seeking a second straight win in the Ballston Spa (G2) at Saratoga, weakening down the homestretch to finish fifth. Technical Analysis was only beaten one length, but this marked the first time she’s finished out of the top two from six starts over the Saratoga grass. I’ll want to see her bounce back with a stronger run before supporting her again.
In this biweekly series, racing analyst J. Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.
