Betting a Champion in the 2023 Ballerina Handicap

America's Best Racing

24 August 2023

Betting a Champion in the 2023 Ballerina Handicap

A pair of champions will face off in Saturday’s $500,000, Grade 1 Ballerina Handicap at Saratoga Race Course, a prestigious sprint for fillies and mares taking place over seven-eighths of a mile. But the outcome won’t necessarily be what bettors expect based off a glance at the past performances.

The Ballerina Handicap awards a “Win and You’re In” berth to the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, and in 2022 #7 Goodnight Olivedominated both races on her way to earning the Eclipse Award for champion female sprinter. In the Ballerina, Goodnight Olive tracked the pace before seizing command in the homestretch to beat #8 Caramel Swirlby 2 3/4 lengths. She was even more impressive in the Breeders’ Cup, pouncing decisively to defeat a stellar field by 2 1/2 lengths.

The runner-up in the Breeders’ Cup was #6 Echo Zulu, the champion 2-year-old filly of 2021 after rattling off victories in the Grade 1 NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, Grade 1 Frizette Stakes, and Grade 1 Spinaway Stakes. Her 3-year-old season was a bit less productive, but she missed the middle of the year and was just rounding back to her best when second behind Goodnight Olive.

Goodnight Olive and Echo Zulu have gone their separate ways since then, so a straightforward interpretation of their racing records might suggest Goodnight Olive will prevail when they meet again in the Ballerina. But you can argue for a different outcome based on their 2023 resumes.

Goodnight Olive has done little wrong in 2023, but the aura of invincibility she exuded in 2022 is missing. She opened this season with a cozy victory in the Grade 1 Madison Stakes at Keeneland, in which she pounced to the front as usual but had to dig down in the final furlong to prevail by one length. She then finished third with a severely traffic-filled trip in the Grade 1 Derby City Distaff Stakes presented by Kendall-Jackson Winery at Churchill Downs before bouncing back with a hard-fought triumph in the Grade 2 Bed o’ Roses Stakes at Belmont Park.

In the Bed o’ Roses, Goodnight Olive won by only a neck over #5 Wicked Halo, who had finished third by 3 1/2 lengths in the 2022 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint. The Bed o’ Roses third-place finisher (beaten only one length) was Caramel Swirl, the above-mentioned runner-up from the 2022 Ballerina.

In contrast, Echo Zulu has been sensational in two starts as a 4-year-old this season. In the Grade 3 Winning Colors Stakes at Churchill Downs, she led all the way to dominate by 5 3/4 lengths. Then in the Grade 2 Honorable Miss Handicap at Saratoga, Echo Zulu again led from the start to win eased-up by 7 1/4 lengths, completing three-quarters of a mile in a blazing 1:08.76.

Whereas Goodnight Olive has possibly lost a step compared with last year, Echo Zulu seems better than ever. There’s a strong chance their second meeting will unfold differently than the first, with Echo Zulu getting the better of her older rival.

We’ll bet the Ballerina accordingly, playing Echo Zulu on top of trifecta and superfecta tickets. We’ll respect Goodnight Olive as a candidate to finish second, but we’ll also mix in Caramel Swirl and Wicked Halo.

Caramel Swirl ran well as a longshot in last year’s Ballerina and put up a gallant fight in the Bed o’ Roses, finishing third after leading in midstretch. Two starts back, she launched a strong late rally to win the Grade 3 Vagrancy Stakes at Belmont Park, so she returns to the Ballerina in good form and has every chance to secure a top-three finish.

As for Wicked Halo, she failed by only a neck to upset Goodnight Olive in the Bed o’ Roses, one start after finishing second (ahead of Goodnight Olive) in the Derby City Distaff. She prepped for the Ballerina with a victory in the Twin Bridges Stakes at Ellis Park and hasn’t finished out of the top three in her last 11 starts, so another competitive showing should be in the offing.

We’ll also use Derby City Distaff winner #2 Matareyain superfecta tickets.

Wagering Strategy on a $15 Budget

$4.50 trifecta: 6 with 7 with 5,8 ($9)

What to say at the betting window: Saratoga, Race 10, $4.50 trifecta 6 with 7 with 5,8

$3 trifecta: 6 with 5,8 with 7 ($6)

What to say at the betting window: Saratoga, Race 10, $3 trifecta 6 with 5,8 with 7

Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget

$6 trifecta: 6 with 7 with 5,8 ($12)

What to say at the betting window: Saratoga, Race 10, $6 trifecta 6 with 7 with 5,8

$4 trifecta: 6 with 5,8 with 7 ($8)

What to say at the betting window: Saratoga, Race 10, $4 trifecta 6 with 5,8 with 7

$1.50 superfecta: 6 with 7 with 5,8 with 2,5,8 ($6)