Horses to Watch: 2-year-olds impress at Saratoga, Del Mar

In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.

New to the Watch List

A 2-year-old son of 2017 horse of the year and hot sire Gun Runner, Risk It fired a big shot in his debut on Saturday at Saratoga. The $500,000 yearling acquisition was favored to win a six-furlong maiden special weight and ran to his odds, carving out solid fractions of 22.60 and 46.00 seconds before finishing strongly (final two furlongs in 12.14 and 12.61 seconds) to dominate by 6 1/2 lengths.

Risk It stopped the clock in 1:10.75 and has the pedigree to stretch out around two turns, so don’t be surprised if this Steve Asmussen trainee turns up on the road to the Kentucky Derby this fall. In fact, the New York Racing Association has reported that Grade 3 Iroquois on Sept. 16 at Churchill Downs (the annual opening leg of the road to the Kentucky Derby) could be next on Risk It’s agenda.

One of the best-bred winners of the weekend was Tamara, a 2-year-old daughter of two-time Grade 1 winner Bolt d’Oro out of four-time champion Beholder. Conditioned by Richard Mandella, Tamara stumbled at the start of a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Del Mar but recovered to race less than two lengths off fractions of 22.53 and 46.11 seconds.

In the homestretch, Tamara launched a steady bid under jockey Mike Smith and eventually edged clear to win by 2 1/2 lengths in 1:17.37. This Spendthrift Farm homebred may prove to be something special.

Upcoming entries

Five starts, four wins, one second. Technical Analysis boasts a near-perfect record racing on grass at Saratoga, highlighted by four stakes wins. Her lone defeat over the Saratoga lawn came when finishing second by 1 1/2 lengths against multiple Grade 1 winner In Italian in the 2022 Diana (G1).

Technical Analysis recently returned to Saratoga with an easy gate-to-wire victory in the one-mile De La Rose, in which she rocketed her final quarter-mile in 22.14 seconds to win by 3 1/2 lengths in the sharp time of 1:33.98. That performance stamps Technical Analysis as the mare to beat in Thursday’s ninth race at Saratoga, the Ballston Spa (G2), a race she won in 2022.

Off the Watch ListCave Rock

Following colic surgery, last year’s brilliant American Pharoah (G1) and Del Mar Futurity (G1) winner Cave Rock came down with laminitis and sadly did not survive.

Salimah

Tracked a gate-to-wire winner in the Dance Smartly (G2) at Woodbine before fading steadily down the homestretch to finish sixth, beaten nine lengths. Salimah has faltered in both her graded-stakes tries since joining my watch list, so I’ll drop her for now and consider returning her if she shows more spark against graded company in the future.

Here is my complete, updated list of Horses to Watch.