How do the Astros make the playoffs? Houston-Arizona series sweep locks up 2023 AL West, but Rangers-Mariners outcome ties in

HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) -- The Houston Astros scored just two runs to open their series with the Arizona Diamondbacks, but they were more than enough to earn the win and get closer to a postseason berth.

The Astros earned the 2-1 win Friday night in Phoenix off of an RBI double by Jose Abreu in the sixth inning that was originally ruled a home run.

Jose Urquidy, who started in place of JP France, whose start was scratched due to a family emergency, shut down D-Backs batters through six innings, notably getting some great defensive support.

Jeremy Pena, who was just 1-for-3 at the plate, turned in a game-saving play, grabbing a grounder with runners on second and third bases to collect the third out of the eighth inning.

Houston almost allowed a tied game in the ninth inning when Ryan Pressly gave up an RBI double to deep-center. Pressly regrouped and induced a groundout to end the game.

As ABC13 reported, all the Astros need to do in order to increase their odds from 76% to 100% is win two of three games at the Arizona Diamondbacks. 'Stros can now earn a playoff berth on their own with one more win, with the first of two tries coming Saturday.

Entering Friday, the Astros trailed the Rangers by two games in the race to win the AL West division title. Seattle was one game behind the 'Stros in both the division race and the chase for the final AL wild-card spot.

After Friday's win and the Mariners' rout of the Rangers, Houston came within a game of the AL West lead while also seeing its wild-card lead remain at one game.

With Seattle being the only team still capable of catching the Astros in the standings, it might behoove 'Stros fans to cheer on the Rangers to eliminate the Mariners. (Yes, that's gross - we know.)

But, here's why.

The Mariners host two more games against the Rangers from Saturday through Sunday.

While the Astros could still win the division title by sweeping Arizona and having Texas lose at least two games this weekend, that scenario is unlikely.

In fact, FanGraphs gave the 'Stros a fewer-than-10% chance of winning the division. The Mariners beating Texas on Friday gave Seattle a 57% chance at the playoffs, according to ESPN, which means the M's are nearly twice as likely to catch the Astros in the race for the final wild-card spot.

And remember: should the 'Stros and Seattle finish tied in the standings, the Mariners own the tiebreaker by virtue of a better head-to-head record.

So, if one of these four teams has to be eliminated - Houston, Toronto, Texas or Seattle - it might as well be the only squad capable of chasing down the Astros in the standings.

• Texas: 89-71, 1st in AL West
• Houston: 88-72, 2nd in AL West, holds third AL wild card, one game behind second AL wild card
• Seattle: 87-73, 3rd in AL West, one game behind third AL wild card
• Toronto: 89-71, 3rd in AL East, holds second AL wild card