How Oregon projects in ESPN's updated Football Power Index

ESPN's Football Power Index, or FPI, was updated for the start of the 2023-2024 regular season, giving a simulation-based projection across college football. 

For those who don't know what ESPN's FPI is, here's a description of how it projects the season: "The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete."

With those 20,000 simulations, Oregon is the No. 13 ranked team in the country and has a 7.4-percent chance to make the playoffs. The Ducks' odds of making the playoffs have jumped since the first edition of the FPI, going from 4.9-percent to 7.4-percent. 

Oregon's playoff chances remain the 12th highest in the country and second highest in the Pac-12 behind USC at 22.2-percent. USC's odds dropped from 27.4-percent.

Oregon's odds of making the National Championship have increased from 1.2-percent to 2.4-percent, giving them the 12th highest odds of making the title game. Once again, the Ducks fall behind USC in the Pac-12, as the Trojans have a 9.3-percent chance of making the title game.

The Ducks' odds of winning the National Championship are even lower, at 0.7-percent, tied for 14th in the country with Utah. Utah has a 2.3-percent chance of making the title game, according to the FPI, falling just shy of the Ducks. Ohio State leads all teams with an astounding 30.4-percent chance of winning the title. 

Oregon will likely require a spotless record to make the playoffs, something the FPI does not project. The FPI projection for Oregon sits at 8.9 wins and 3.4 losses, down from the original projection of 9.1 wins and 3.3 losses. ESPN's FPI gives Oregon a two-percent forecast of winning out. 

Despite the slight dropoff, Oregon still has the second-highest projected win total in the Pac-12, falling behind USC (10.0-2.6) and ahead of Oregon State, who's jumped to the third-highest projected win total at 8.6 wins and 3.7 losses. 

Utah is fourth-highest for wins at 8.5, and Washington comes in fifth at 7.7 wins. 

The FPI projects Oregon with an 18.2-percent chance of winning the conference. Those odds are second-highest in the conference behind USC. The Ducks' projections have increased from 16.9-percent in the spring, jumping ahead of Utah. The Utes now have a 17.4-percent chance of winning the conference, climbing .4 percentage points. Oregon State (9.1-percent) and Washington (8.9-percent) round out the top five. 

ESPN's FPI projections will become loaded with more information to add to its simulations as the 2023 season gets underway.

Consider followingDuckTerritory on Twitter and our full-time writersMatt Prehm,Erik Skopil, andJared Mack.

If you're not a VIP subscriber to DuckTerritory.com, consider signing up and taking advantage of our FREE trial here.