Josh Allen NFL Player Props, Odds Wild Card Weekend: Predictions for Steelers vs. Bills

We look at whether the Buffalo Bills' quarterback will be able to put up the type of numbers on Wild Card Weekend that we're accustomed to seeing from him with our top Josh Allen NFL player props based on the best NFL odds.

It's no secret that the weather is going to be brutal at Highmark Stadium when the Buffalo Bills host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Wild Card Weekend.

The game features a total of 34, by far the lowest of any game played in the first round of the NFL playoffs. However, have our best sports betting apps over-adjusted for the inclement weather?

Though your first thought may be to immediately bet any passing and receiving Unders, I've uncovered some value on a couple of Josh Allen Overs by shopping around (I promise I did shop around; FanDuel is just "funny" this way).

As part of our NFL Wild Card Weekend predictions and to accompany our Steelers vs. Bills prediction and Steelers vs. Bills player props, here are our Josh Allen NFL player prop predictions (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Josh Allen NFL player prop predictions for Wild Card Weekend

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Josh Allen player props

Josh Allen Over 205.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Allen's passing yards total opened in the 222.5 range at our best sports betting sites but has plummeted with news that Orchard Park will resemble the Arctic tundra combined with those indoor skydiving tunnels. As a result, it's down to 205.5 at FanDuel, and that's the point at which we'll buy back the Over.

Across five projection models, Allen's average passing yards projection is 229.04. When we run that number against FanDuel's -114 odds on Over 205.5, we're getting roughly 25% positive expected value on this play.

Now, perhaps FanDuel is just one move ahead of all of our other best sportsbooks by listing a total this low, as most others are hovering around 207.5 and bet365 is still up at 215.5.

However, Pinnacle, which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry, is still at 207.5, which tells us that FanDuel likely moved its line a couple of yards too low (for the time being, at least).

Therefore, we'll trust our projections and bet on Allen to volume his way to 206-plus passing yards. 

Josh Allen Over 18.5 passing completions (-130 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

We're attacking another line that FanDuel has set too low. All of our other sites with the best sportsbook promos have Allen's completions total set at 19.5.

Allen's average completions total is 20.1 across the aforementioned five projection models. The low end is a somewhat discouraging 17, but each of the other four has a number at 20 or above, with the high being 22.

It's important to remember, too, that most of these projection models factor in every detail, including the status of fellow offensive players, potential game script, the pace at which teams play, and, yes, the weather. Don't just jump to bet Unders when you see snow or heavy winds in the forecast.

When we run Allen's completions projection against FanDuel's -130 odds on the Over of its rogue 18.5 line, we're getting a little better than 5% +EV on this bet. It's not a huge edge, but it's recommended based on the fact that FanDuel will likely move its line to 19.5 sooner rather than later.

Josh Allen to score a touchdown (+105 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Finally, we've reached the FanDuel trifecta. Most of our other best live betting sites have Allen to score a touchdown priced at minus money, with Caesars trading at a truly unbettable -175 price.

Allen's average touchdown projection is 0.68, while FanDuel's price on this prop suggests a 48% probability that the Bills quarterback will take it in for six points the hard way.

Even if we remove the outlier projection for Allen to score one touchdown, his average projection is 0.55. At that projection, we still have an edge on this price.

Don't be scared off by the abnormally low total for this game and bet on value where you can find it.

For the best price on all of these plays, be sure to use our exclusive FanDuel promo code.

Josh Allen player prop picks made Friday at 2 p.m. ET.

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