'I definitely think he's got a big race in him'
The average winning Racing Post Rating in the six runnings of this handicap at Newmarket is a lofty 110, and history suggests a Group-class performer is required to get the job done.
That stat bodes well for 100+ rated operators New Kingdom, Tacarib Bay, Vafortino and Spirit Of Light, although Tacarib Bay is the only runner proven at a level beyond handicaps and marginally makes the most appeal among that group.
Tacarib Bay fails to win as often as his ability warrants (2-14 overall), but is a rock-solid performer who has hit RPRs ranging from 107-110 in seven of his previous nine outings.
This four-year-old produced a rare below-par effort in the Doncaster Mile last time on heavy ground that stretches his stamina over that trip and the return to 7f should see him in a better light, while his only run over this course and distance yielded a fine second in the European Free Handicap at this meeting last season.
Hodler is evidently not a Group horse and fails to meet the recent winning criteria, although appeals as a likely improver despite running from 1lb out of the weights.
Hodler's close second to Astral Beau off similar terms in a course-and-distance handicap in October reads well given the winner's subsequent runaway Listed triumph at Doncaster, and two of his three best performances on RPRs have been earned on soft ground.
A recent Lingfield return would have blown the cobwebs away and there is reasonable optimism that the bottomweight could bust the trends.
Race analysis by Robbie Wilders
What they say
Richard Hannon, trainer of Tacarib Bay
He ran all right at Doncaster but gave up a little bit there. The ground was very deep but it should be better for him here. He's in great form and should have a good chance.
Ian Williams, trainer of Spirit Of Light
He ran well at Musselburgh and would appreciate it if the ground dried up. He was over in Dubai before that and seems in good shape. He looks fairly well handicapped on the form of his last run.
Mick Appleby, trainer of Juan Les Pins
He's in good order but has been off for quite a while so might just need the run. He's up to seven furlongs but it should be fine, as should the ground. On the form of his Ayr Gold Cup third, I definitely think he's got a big race in him this season.
William Stone, trainer of Final Watch
He has disappointed in his last two runs which we've put down to very soft ground, so hopefully the conditions dry out a bit. He has run well there before but in a lot lower grade. This looks a fairly warm race.
Jim Boyle, trainer of Hodler
It's nice to get him back on turf now – he loves to get his toe in. It's a decent quality race and we're a 1lb out of the handicap but he should enjoy the conditions, he'll come on for his first run and I'm expecting a solid performance.
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