Illinois vs Nebraska Predictions, Picks, and Odds

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16 March 2024

Illinois vs Nebraska Predictions, Picks, and Odds

Fred Hoiberg knows a thing or two about hitting 3-pointers, which is good, because our college basketball picks see Nebraska taking advantage from beyond the arc against Illinois today.

There may not be a hotter team in the Big Ten than the Nebraska Cornhuskers, enjoying their best season in more than 30 years. If Big Red reaches the final of the Big Ten Tournament bracket, it may be the greatest accomplish head coach Fred Hoiberg has notched in Target Center, despite spending the final two seasons of his NBA career playing for the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Nebraska will need to upset the Illinois Fighting Illini to give Hoiberg that fitting moment, also a chance for the ‘Huskers to redeem an overtime loss back in early November. To pull off the conference tournament odds upset, Nebraska will have to follow Hoiberg’s old habit of hitting plenty of 3s.

Hoiberg took more than two 3-pointers per game in his two seasons with the Timberwolves, making 46.1% of them. He knows what it is to succeed from range in the Target Center, and the thought of the ‘Huskers finding that shooting stroke determines our free college basketball picks and predictions as we preview Nebraska vs Illinois on March 16.

Illinois vs Nebraska best odds

Illinois vs Nebraska picks and predictions

Illinois’ success this season has been determined by its offense. The Illini defense is, to put it simply, only okay. Ken Pomeroy considers it to be the No. 74 defense in the country. Barttorvik.com ranks it the No. 85 defense across the season, a slotting that has been doomed by the last month.

Since Feb. 12 — a date cherry-picked to be to Illinois’s benefit, going 6-3 outright and 5-4 against the spread before heading to Minneapolis — the Illini defense has been considered No. 129 in Torvik’s numbers, 6.2 points worse per 100 possessions than in the season up until Feb. 12, when it was the No. 46 defense.

The No. 129 rank in the last nine games is worrying and the kind of thing that should doom any Illinois dreams in its next tournament. It may doom them in this one first.

The Illini defense relies on not giving up 3-pointer attempts partly by denying ball movement, it avoids fouls and collects most rebounds. It is, broadly speaking, a solid approach: Work against the analytical want to take as many 3-pointers as possible while also preventing the easy scoring opportunities that come from free throw attempts and putbacks.

The problem today will be, Nebraska is okay with almost all of that. The Cornhuskers barely go to the free throw line. They do not pursue offensive rebounds with vigor. Even Nebraska’s ball movement should be described as merely average.

But the ‘Huskers live behind the arc, taking 43.6% of their field goal attempts from deep in conference play, the highest rate in the Big Ten. And they made 37.7% of those looks, No. 4 in the conference. In Friday’s rout of Indiana, Nebraska went 14-of-32 from deep, 43.%. The more notable percentage is that as Big Red took 60 total field goals, 53.3% of them were from 3-point range.

Illinois may strive to prevent those 3-point attempts, just as it did throughout Big Ten play, opponents taking only 25.4% of their shots from distance. But the Illini gave up 28 deep looks to Nebraska in an overtime game on Feb. 4, the ‘Huskers making 12 of them, 42.9%. And again, the more notable percentage was that as Big Red took 68 total field goals, 41.2% of them came from 3-point range.

Nebraska was able to play its offense in that game, which played a part in covering the +10 spread.Illinois let conference opponents hit 38.8% of their deep shots. It just didn’t give up many deep shots.

Nebraska takes threes like they are going out of style, a page from Hoiberg’s playing career. The Illini already failed to stop that once this season, and failing to do so again today will create a high variance chance for the Cornhuskers to spring this upset.

In Big Ten play, Nebraska was as likely to hit more than 50% of its threes as it was to hit less than 30%, doing each three times. It made at least 40% of at least 20 attempts — eight threes seemingly a moderate number but a rather healthy one in college basketball — in eight of 21 conference games.

Those are round numbers. Making 9-of-23, 39.1%, in a 20-point win against Michigan should count as a success. But those round numbers give an idea of how capable the ‘Huskers are of raining from deep, and given they did it to the Illini once only to fall in overtime, the value of betting on them to do it again and win is worthwhile.

My best bet: Nebraska moneyline (+170 at BetRivers)

Illinois vs Nebraska same-game parlay

Nebraska moneylineOver 154Brice Williams Over 1.5 made threes

The construction of this same-game parlay should not need much explanation. The value in the Nebraska moneyline comes from the very plausible chance of the Cornhuskers finding a rhythm from deep.
An abundance of made threes obviously correlates to hitting the Over.

And after Brice Williams went 4-of-6 from deep in Friday’s rout of Indiana, it would not be shocking at all to see him trust in his shooting stroke and keep chucking. He averages 3.75 attempts from beyond the arc per game, making 39.2% of them. If anything, his conversion rate should increase given that has been an Illinois weakness this season, meaning he may need to take only four in order to make a pair.

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Illinois vs Nebraska spread and Over/Under analysis

The Illini were favored by 10 at home in early February against Nebraska. Assign three of those points to the home-court advantage, making it -7 on a neutral court six weeks ago. Since then, Illinois’s defense has fallen off so starkly, that alone influences this number handily.

There may be only 70 possessions in this game. But the Illini have been giving up 104 points per 100 possessions, suggesting 73 may be in store for the ‘Huskers today. Add in the influx of threes, and that thought starts to approach 77 or 78.

The wonder then becomes if Illinois can get to 83 to cover this -4.5. Its offense has a high floor, one predicated on committing few turnovers, grabbing many offensive rebounds and getting to the free throw line frequently. The problem with that approach today is that Nebraska does not foul often, sending opponents to the charity stripe at the third-lowest rate in the Big Ten.

As mentioned earlier, the ‘Huskers also do not pursue many free throws. If there is any reason to doubt the Over today, it is that neither team will live at the top of the key.

This total has already fallen a good bit, though, opening at 157.5 in Saturday’s earliest hours and reaching 154 before anyone on the East Coast even considered getting up for the day.

For what it is worth, the previous matchup between these two went Over its total only in overtime, sitting 8.5 points short in regulation. But, again, that was back when Illinois’s defense was a strength, not a country-average unit.