In which we earnestly predict the date of the 2023 New Zealand general election
Jacinda Ardern will announce the date of the 2023 New Zealand general election. Toby Manhire and the Spinoff predict it will be on Saturday November 26th. The Herald on Sunday, Arab News and Google had all predicted it would be in November. The Spinoffs correctly picked the election date in August and October. It was postponed to October 17th due to pandemic reasons.
The date of the 2023 New Zealand general election will be decided at the first cabinet meeting of this year on January 25th.
The latest day on which the 53rd and current parliament can dissolve is November 20. The election will not be on January 13, 2024. December general election hasn't been held since 1931. Only one snap election has been called under MMP. The new norm of announcing early in the year makes snap elections less likely.
Term three ends on Friday September 22 and term four starts on October 9. The school holiday calendar is September 2, 9, 16, 23, 30, October 7, 14, 21, 28, November 4, 11, 18, 25.
The election date calculations often factor in All Black fixtures. This year there is no threat of a Saturday night home test clash, but there are overnight men’s world cup matches in France. The final kicks off at 9am on Sunday October 29.
The economic outlook is gloomy. The advance voting of the public has increased. In 2020, almost a million votes were cast with a week to go to the election. August sucks. Jacinda Ardern and Grant Robertson will be banking on the green shoots of spring and the general mood turning optimistic.
The bell tolls for October 14th. It's the world cup quarter finals weekend, it's in the school holidays, and it falls during the weekend. November 4th, 11th and 18th are also not as good.
The next New Zealand general election will be on November 25th. The first two November weekends are no longer considered. The last Saturday in November was the traditional date for elections, but it was changed in 1984. There have been two last-Saturday-in-November elections since 1999 and 2011. It is either the day before the Black Caps’ world cup final defeat or a few days after the World Cup semi-final defeat.
