Coalitions, kingmakers and a Rugby World Cup: the calculations already influencing next year’s election

Winston Peters wants to win back voters who abandoned him in 2020. He wants New Zealand First to be in opposition. Christopher Luxon is evasive but didn't rule out working with Peters. New Zealander First has a chance of returning to parliament next year. They won 6.6% in 2011 after no seats in 2008.

Te Pāti Māori are unlikely to play a role in government. The real jockeying is on the right. National's decision to review its tax-cut policies makes the party more compatible with New Zealand First and less so with ACT. If neither team gets a majority of seats, a minority coalition could form a government if it has the support of another party (or parties) on confidence and supply votes.

The basic criterion for forming the government is that the prime minister-designate can assure the governor-general that they lead a party or coalition of parties that has the confidence of the House.

The election is scheduled for September 23, 2023. The All Blacks and France will kick off the 20th Rugby World Cup on September 9. In 2020, the prime minister first announced polling day would be September 19. The election was delayed by four weeks. There could be some weeks of negotiations before the government is sworn in. It's not over until the new government's sworn-in. For now, expect the unexpected. iReport.com.uk. iReporter.