India v New Zealand semi-final preview and best bets

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13 November 2023

India v New Zealand semi-final preview and best bets

Cricket betting tips: India v New Zealand

2pts New Zealand to beat India at 12/5 (General)

1pt Trent Boult Man of the Match at 18/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)

1.5pts Daryl Mitchell top New Zealand batsman at 5/1 (Sky Bet)

0.5pts Daryl Mitchell Man of the Match at 18/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)

The Cricket World Cup finally reaches the knockout stages this week, with hosts India facing NEW ZEALAND on Wednesday morning, 8.30am, UK time at Mumbai’s Wankhede Stadium, in a repeat of the 2019 semi-final.

India went into that match in Cardiff as strong favourites, and the same scenario awaits four years on following an impressive group campaign that saw Rohit Sharma’s side win all nine matches.

New Zealand finished fourth in the group table, following five wins and four losses, but it was a similar story in 2019, only for the Kiwis to defy both the odds and the form book to progress to a Lord’s final they would eventually lose to England.

On the face of it, New Zealand face an uphill task against a brilliant India side that has Virat Kohli and Rohit Sharma firing with the bat, and boasts a well-rounded bowling attack led by the outstanding Jasprit Bumrah.

In truth, nobody has been able to live with India so far.

New Zealand no penalty kick for India

However, the only time India were put under sustained pressure was when they played New Zealand in Dharamsala, the hosts eventually winning by four wickets, with 12 balls to spare.

But the result doesn’t tell the whole story. New Zealand were eventually bowled out for 273 batting first, but only after they were pegged back from 178-2, and they really should have set India a much stiffer target. Events later that day would suggest anything more would have been a mighty struggle for India to chase down.

India’s fightback was in part due to a high-class display of death bowling, but New Zealand will feel they missed a trick there and had Kohli not held India’s reply together with the bat, again, the final result might well have been different.

That’s not to say India weren’t deserving winners on the day. They won the big moments and the match. But New Zealand were not only in the game, they were on top at various points, and their pedigree in knockout matches in ICC events is so strong.

The Kiwis reached the final of the T20 World Cup in the UAE two years ago when India fluffed their lines, and should they win on Wednesday, they will contest their third 50-over World Cup final in a row.

That they haven’t got over the line yet will concern many, but perhaps they have fewer questions to answer than India in that regard, given they have generally disappointed in that period – with many of the same personnel that will feature on Wednesday.

It was a major shock when the Kiwis turned them over in 2019, and it was a surprise to see how easily India rolled over for England in Adelaide at last year’s T20 World Cup, losing that semi-final by 10 wickets.

The big issue for India has been how this team has so far struggled to replicate its impressive group form in knockout cricket. On a diet of bilateral series, World Cup knockout matches are a rarity and India’s batting just hasn’t been as bold without the safety net of another match to follow.

Even in the IPL, the two top finishers in the league get two bites of the cherry to make the final, and while Rohit has dragged this batting line-up with him to embrace a fearless approach to white-ball batting, I’m not certain we have yet had the answers to questions that still hang over this India team.

In a funny way, perhaps their flawless group campaign puts even more pressure on Rohit’s men who are carrying the hopes of a cricket-obsessed nation. It’s a heavy burden to shoulder and at the prices, I can’t resist backing New Zealand to spring another surprise at 12/5.

Beware Boult with the new ball

The Kiwis don’t boast the X factor that India do, but are solid, dependable and themselves very well balanced across all departments.

If anything, they boast more options with the ball than India who don’t have a sixth bowling option, something that can be a real issue on a ground that is generally high scoring and can see bowling teams get stretched.

Generally a very good place to bat, the Wankhede has played host to a glut of big scores in this tournament and should continue to favour batsmen. But late runs are more often the order of the day here and the new ball has done a fair bit, particularly in the second innings when the lights first come into effect.

If Trent Boult and Tim Southee find themselves bowling at that time, they ought to make the two new balls talk, and the former in particular is a good match-up against Rohit and Shubman Gill who can be vulnerable to the inswinger.

And should New Zealand find themselves batting second, they have high-class Test match batsmen in Devon Conway and Kane Williamson to navigate what is sure to be a tricky passage of play against those new balls.

After that, Daryl Mitchell and Glenn Phillips add a potent mix of traditional batsmanship and T20-style firepower that helps make up a very strong batting line-up.

Another potentially huge factor in relation to this ground is that spin rarely plays a significant role.

The Wankhede can be an unforgiving place for all types of bowlers, but there is rarely anything for the spinners and that was perfectly demonstrated in Australia’s memorable win over Afghanistan here last week – Adam Zampa’s tight grip on the top Australia bowler market finally slipping, before Afghanistan’s vaunted spin attack were unable to halt Glenn Maxwell’s brutal onslaught.

Spin, so often India’s strength, might not make much difference here. It could be another leveller for New Zealand.

Back to TRENT BOULT, and I’m going to throw a few quid at him to be Man of the Match, betting that his expertise with the new ball can shape the match in the powerplay.

It’s one of the worst kept secrets in cricket that Boult is deadly in his first few overs and as I pointed out earlier, the match-ups with India’s top order suggest he has a fair bit going for him.

Boult's record in this format against India is very good – 25 wickets from 14 matches at an average of 26.00 – and it’s just the same in T20s and Test cricket. Boult versus India is apparently a very good fit.

After a sluggish start to the tournament, Boult has warmed to the task nicely and his three wickets in New Zealand’s last match dismantled Sri Lanka’s top order. With 18/1 on offer, here’s hoping for more of the same.

Mitchell can make India pay again

In the same market, DARYL MITCHELL is added to the staking plan, and I'll also back him in the top New Zealand batsmen market at 5/1.

Mitchell was New Zealand’s top scorer when striking a wonderful 130 against India earlier in the tournament and he has been brilliant throughout, scoring 418 runs at 59.71, despite often playing second fiddle to an on-song top order.

The return to full fitness of Williamson is a huge boost to the Kiwis and clearly provides another obstacle to Mitchell backers, but I’m under no illusions that this will be a huge challenge for New Zealand’s batting unit, and we ought to get a level playing field.

Mitchell now deserves to be talked about as one of the best all-format batsmen in the world, and I’m not surprised he has enjoyed success against India before, given how well he plays spin and that his long stride and even longer levers can be a nightmare for shorter seamers such as Mohammed Siraj and Mohammed Shami who tend to skid the ball on and generate little bounce.

The margin for error in length for Siraj and Shami against players like Mitchell is minute, and New Zealand’s number four is one to keep on side.

For New Zealand to book their ticket to another World Cup final, they will need a complete team performance, but two of their big guns in particular have the tools and records to suggest they can drive the Kiwis to another semi-final victory over the mighty India, taking down home hopes with them.