Indiana Pacers vs. Los Angeles Lakers, Prediction, & Pick
Pacers vs. Lakers Odds
On Saturday night, NBA fans will be treated to the inaugural In-Season Tournament championship, featuring Tyrese Haliburton and the Indiana Pacers against LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers. Entering play, both teams are undefeated in the tournament and are outscoring their opponents by over 10 points per 100 possessions.
Ahead of tip off this evening, the Lakers are favored by 4 points on the spread. The total is set at over/under 243 points.
Below, we break down the matchup for both teams and offer a free pick for the betting community!
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Indiana Pacers
Pacers offense generating plenty of open looks
In Monday’s victory over the Celtics, the Pacers had an effective field goal percentage (eFG%) of 55.9%. On Thursday, they had a 52.5% eFG% in a win against the Bucks. The result was two games with at least 122 points scored for Indiana.
The larger question for this group is whether or not they will be able to continue their run of impressive offensive efficiency against one of the league’s best defenses when they face the Lakers on Saturday.
Indiana’s path to victory
Though it sounds rather simple and perhaps lacking “expert” analysis, the key to the game tonight for the Pacers is for them to hit their open shots. Across the last month of action, the Lakers have allowed the 3rd-most three-point attempts of any team in the league, and their defense ranks only 12th in opponent three-point percentage. The Pacers have attempted the 5th-most three-point attempts of any offense in the NBA this year, making it imperative that they use the perimeter to their strength in this matchup.
Los Angeles Lakers
LeBron James looking to add to impressive resume
LeBron James has won four NBA championships, been named NBA Finals MVP four times, regular season MVP four times, and made 19 All-NBA teams, just to name a few of his impressive accolades from his time in the league. The only trophy still missing from his mantle is an NBA In-Season Tournament Cup due to the fact that this is the first year of the tournament.
Though many pundits poked fun at the lack of meaning the tournament would carry when discussing the event leading up to the group stage, James has been vocal about his commitment to the event, including the $500,000 prize money awarded to each member of the winning team.
Pushing 40 years old, sometimes it takes a little bit of extra motivation to get James to play at a high level prior to the new year. The In-Season Tournament appears to have been sufficient motivation for him considering the fact that he is averaging 26.8 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 8.2 assists on 58.8% shooting in six such games this season. Expect another dominant performance from him this evening.
Lakers defense making life tough for opponents
In six NBA In-Season Tournament games, the Lakers have been the most dominant defensive team in the league, and it has not been particularly close. Their 102.3 points allowed per 100 possessions is 3.9 points fewer per 100 possessions than the next-best defense.
Los Angeles has dominated the glass, ranking 3rd in rebound percentage during the tournament and has done a super job defending without fouling of late, allowing the fewest opponent free throws per game across the last month overall.
This unit is well-equipped to slow down a dynamic Pacers attack on Saturday as long as they do a reasonably effective job defending the perimeter.
Indiana Pacers vs. Los Angeles Lakers Prediction
Under 243 (-110), DraftKings
The Pacers are known for playing at a blistering pace, with only an afterthought for their responsibilities on the defensive end of the floor – but we could see a slightly more measured approach from them tonight in the championship. Their defensive intensity has ramped up since the group stage, and that is likely to continue this evening.
The Lakers have been the NBA’s best defense during the In-Season Tournament and will undoubtedly look to slow the pace as much as they can to maximize their talent advantage in the half court on both ends of the floor.
Even Indiana’s matchups against two high-octane offenses this week have struggled to keep pace with a market number of 243. Both of the Lakers games this week have gone well under this market number. Trust that defense will be the star of the show this evening or at least that it will be on display enough to keep this game from going over 243 total points.
