Suns vs. Pacers prediction: NBA odds, picks, best bets for Friday

The Indiana Pacers snapped a three-game losing streak with a 134-122 home victory over the 76ers on Thursday.

More impressively, they won without their star point guard Tyrese Haliburton, who remains sidelined with a hamstring injury.

Haliburton won’t be re-evaluated until Saturday, ahead of Sunday’s clash with the Grizzlies.

Thus, the recently named All-Star starter will miss his fourth consecutive NBA game as the Pacers wrap up their season series with the Suns on Friday night.

These teams faced one another just five days ago, with Phoenix winning, 117-110, at home. 

After Indiana’s 134-point effort Thursday, we’re seeing the total bet up as high as 243.5 after opening at 240. 

However, I’ll share why a contrarian approach could offer some value, especially with the Pacers on short rest and playing the second leg of a back-to-back. 

Phoenix comes into this contest riding high on a seven-game winning streak. The Suns battled back from a 16-point first-half deficit against the Mavericks on Wednesday to win, 132-109. 

They weathered the storm despite Dallas getting off to a hot start from behind the perimeter. Phoenix responded by dialing up its defensive intensity to take the Mavericks out of their rhythm. 

Per TeamRankings, the Suns are a middle-of-the-pack defensive team, ranking 15th in efficiency while allowing 111.8 points per 100 possessions. However, during this winning streak, they have the seventh-best defensive rating (112.3 value).

Due to injuries, the Suns only have 12 games with their preferred starting lineup of Grayson Allen, Bradley Beal, Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Jusuf Nurkic. But with a healthy starting lineup now intact, Suns players are better able to establish their roles within the team.

One player starting to find his identity is backup small forward Josh Okogie. The sixth-year pro is best utilized coming off the bench and can be quite a stopper on defense. 

When recently matched up against Luka Doncic, the Mavericks superstar had his worst shooting performance compared to when guarded by other Suns players. 

It’s all about balance for the Suns. If their starting lineup can stay healthy, they’ll be better positioned to benefit from a defensive asset like Okogie, who’s more effective when playing to his strengths.

Indiana shot a mouthwatering 57% from the floor in its victory over the 76ers.

Sixty-eight of the Pacers’ points came from inside the paint, which is surprising when the 76ers have Joel Embiid patrolling the interior. 

The final score might make you think the Pacers had a big night from the perimeter, but they only attempted 28 3-pointers, which was well below their season average of 36.7 per game.

They did manage to make 12 3-pointers while shooting 42.9% from beyond the arc. But if you look at their last three games, they rank 25th with 10.3 3-point field goals and 29th in attempts with 26.7.

I don’t expect the game speed to be as fast as in the Pacers-76ers matchup. After all, Phoenix ranks 24th in pace with 98.4 possessions per 48 minutes.

The Suns limited the Pacers to 48 points inside the paint — slightly better than their season average of 49.5 per game. During this current streak, the Suns are allowing 45.4 points in the paint, putting them seventh in the league.

Based on those numbers, I’d expect the Pacers to have some regression following a dominant shooting performance against the 76ers.

(7 p.m. ET,)

I’m willing to bet the Pacers can’t put up such prodigious offensive numbers on short rest. 

According to our Action Labs database, when a home team plays after scoring 134 or more points the total is 200-167-4 to the under for 21.06 units.

Moreover, when a home team is on a back-to-back this season with an opening total of 240 or more points that closed even higher, the under is 5-2.

But if you’re still unconvinced, the Suns are a perfect 5-0 to the under this season with an opening total of 240 or more points.

The market can be guilty of being a prisoner of the moment, but I’m not taking the bait. I’ll take the under at 244 / -110 with PointsBet.

Pick: Under 244 (-110, Fanatics) | Bet to 243.5