Iowa basketball: How Hawkeyes can clinch top-4 Big Ten tournament seed

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. − The Big Ten Conference men's basketball standings are still in flux with less than a week to go in the regular season. Iowa is positioned nicely for a strong finish.

The Hawkeyes thrashed Indiana by a 90-68 margin on Tuesday night, improving to 11-8 in conference play and completing a season sweep of the preseason conference favorites. Additionally, Iowa secured another tiebreaker over a team with a similar record, as Indiana fell to 11-8 in conference play.

Iowa is aiming for a top-four Big Ten finish, which would secure a coveted double-bye in the conference tournament March 8-12 in Chicago. Not only would that give the Hawkeyes extra rest, but would almost eliminate the possibility of a "bad loss" on their NCAA Tournament resume by avoiding an early upset.

Entering Wednesday night's games, the Hawkeyes were tied with Indiana for fifth place but statistically held the best odds among eight teams trying to secure three remaining double-bye slots (league-leading Purdue has clinched one already) based on the remaining schedules of other Big Ten teams. Some teams still have two games to play as of Wednesday while Iowa has one: at home on Sunday against Nebraska (1 p.m. CT, Big Ten Network), which is 15-15 overall and 8-11 in Big Ten play.

The final Big Ten standings will not be settled until Sunday night. Other teams to watch are conference favorites Purdue (13-5 in Big Ten play), Maryland (11-7), Michigan (11-7), Northwestern (11-7), Indiana (11-8), Illinois (10-8), Michigan State (10-8) and Rutgers (10-8). Excluding Purdue, the Hawkeyes hold an 8-1 record against these teams.

Despite Iowa's favorable odds for a top-four finish, there's a great amount of volatility in what could happen by Sunday night. It also must be taken into account that the Hawkeyes could lose on Sunday, which would come with huge consequences.

Here are the possible scenarios in which Iowa clinches a top-four seed, and the ways the team could be on the outside looking in:

Iowa can clinch a No. 2 seed with …

A win over Nebraska on Sunday + one loss each by Maryland (at Ohio State, at Penn State), Michigan (at Illinois, at Indiana) and Northwestern (vs. Penn State, at Rutgers)

Analysis: It's possible that Iowa could climb all the way to No. 2 in the conference, an impressive feat considering the 0-3 start to conference play. This scenario sees Iowa, Maryland, Michigan and Northwestern (among other teams, depending on other results) finish with a 12-8 record. The Hawkeyes hold the round-robin tiebreaker over the other 12-8 teams. This scenario has Iowa playing on a Friday night at 5:30 pm against the winner of Michigan State/Wisconsin. Also notable here, Iowa could avoid No. 1 Purdue until the championship game.

Iowa can clinch a No. 3 seed with …

A win over Nebraska on Sunday + Maryland winning out (at Ohio State, at Penn State) at least one loss by Northwestern (vs. Penn State, at Rutgers) and one loss by Michigan (at Illinois, at Indiana)

OR

A win over Nebraska + Northwestern winning out (vs. Penn State, at Rutgers) and one loss by Maryland (at Ohio State, at Penn State) and one loss by Michigan (at Illinois, at Indiana)

Analysis: A few scenarios see a 12-8 Iowa clinching a No. 3 seed in the conference tournament with the No. 2 seed belonging to a Maryland or Northwestern that wins out. Despite a lower seed, an argument can be made that this is a better scenario for Iowa. The No. 3 seed game − which would be most likely against either Northwestern, Nebraska or Minnesota (scenario 1) or Michigan State, Penn State or Minnesota (scenario 2) − starts around 8 p.m. on Friday, which would maximize rest time. Of course, the turnaround to Saturday afternoon's semifinals would be quick. But the No. 3 seed automatically is in the final five of the league tournament.

Iowa can clinch a No. 4 seed with …

A win over Nebraska on Sunday + Maryland winning out (at Ohio State, at Penn State), Michigan winning out (at Illinois, at Indiana) and Rutgers winning out (vs. Minnesota, vs. Northwestern)

OR

A win over Nebraska on Sunday + Maryland winning out (at Ohio State, at Penn State) and Northwestern winning out or finishing 1-1 (vs. Penn State, at Rutgers) and Michigan finishing 1-1 (at Illinois, at Indiana).

Analysis: If Iowa ends up in a two-way tie with Northwestern, the Wildcats win the tiebreaker. Thus, this mixed-bag scenario could send a 12-8 Iowa to the No. 4 line in the conference tournament. In that case, Iowa would play on Friday afternoon (1:30) and potentially a Noon game on Saturday against No. 1 Purdue. Possible Friday opponents are Rutgers, Penn State or Ohio State (scenario 1) or Indiana, Michigan, Penn State or Ohio State (scenario 2).

Iowa could miss a double bye even with a win over Nebraska

Maryland winning out (at Ohio State, at Penn State), Michigan winning out (at Illinois, at Indiana) and Northwestern winning out or going 1-1 with the loss being to Penn State

Analysis: Yes, though very unlikely, there is a chance that 12-8 isn't good enough for Iowa to secure a double-bye with three teams potentially at 13-7 or a 12-8 Northwestern edging out Iowa. This scenario likely means a 1:30 Thursday game as a No. 5 seed against Penn State/Ohio State and being on the same side of the bracket as Purdue. But don't forget, Iowa won the Big Ten Tournament as a No. 5 seed last year.

How would Iowa losing to Nebraska affect seeding?

Whereas a win against Nebraska alone does not guarantee a double-bye, a loss guarantees that Iowa won't secure a top-four finish. Here are several ways seeding could play out should that happen.

Possible scenarios where Iowa clinches the No. 6 seed:

A loss vs. Nebraska + Maryland winning out (at Ohio State, at Penn State), Michigan winning out (at Illinois, at Indiana) and Northwestern winning out(vs. Penn State, at Rutgers)

OR

A loss vs. Nebraska + a Maryland win over Ohio State/loss to Penn State, a Michigan win over Indiana/loss to Illinois and a Northwestern win over Rutgers/loss to Penn State.

OR

A loss vs. Nebraska + Illinois winning out (vs. Michigan, at Purdue), Maryland winning out (at Ohio State, at Penn State), Northwestern winning out (vs. Penn State, at Rutgers), Michigan finishing 1-1 (at Illinois, at Indiana) and a Michigan State loss to Ohio State.

Outcome: 8 p.m. Thursday game against the No. 11 seed vs. Minnesota winner.

Possible scenarios where Iowa clinches the No. 7 seed:

A loss vs. Nebraska + Maryland winning out (at Ohio State, at Penn State), Michigan losing out (at Illinois, at Indiana) and Northwestern finishing finishing 1-1 (vs. Penn State, at Rutgers).

OR

A loss vs. Nebraska + a Maryland win over Penn State/loss to Ohio State, a Michigan win over Illinois/loss to Indiana and a Northwestern win over Penn State/loss to Rutgersand a Michigan State loss to Ohio State.

OR

A loss vs. Nebraska + Illinois winning out (vs. Michigan, at Purdue), Maryland winning out (at Ohio State, at Penn State), Northwestern winning out (vs. Penn State, at Rutgers) and Michigan finishing 1-1 (at Illinois, at Indiana).

Outcome: 5:30 p.m. Thursday game against the No. 10 seed (most likely a Nebraska rematch).

Possible scenario where Iowa clinches the No. 8 seed:

A loss vs. Nebraska + Illinois winning out (vs. Michigan, at Purdue), Maryland winning out (at Ohio State, at Penn State), Northwestern finishing finishing 1-1 (vs. Penn State, at Rutgers), Michigan finishing 1-1 (at Illinois, at Indiana) and a Michigan State win over Ohio State.

Outcome: The worst-case scenario, an early Thursday game against No. 9 seed Indiana at 11 a.m., with Purdue awaiting the winner.