Ireland vs New Zealand Prediction, Odds & Picks
As the saying goes, if you want to be the best, you have to beat the best. And for Ireland to reach the Rugby World Cup semifinals for the first time, they will have to do just that. In Saturday’s second semifinal, they will take on New Zealand at the Stade de France (3:00 pm ET, Peacock), with their sights set on a historic win.
Ireland sit at the top of the world rugby rankings, won the Six Nations for the first time since 2018 earlier this year, and beat South Africa in pool play on the way to winning Pool B with 19 of 20 possible points.
But that success combined would not compare to a win on Saturday over the biggest name in the game, a team that has won the World Cup three times, reached the final four times, and made the semifinals of all but one World Cup.
If Ireland can slay the big beast, they will not only end a history of hurt at this stage, but they will also record a record-tying 18th consecutive win.
New Zealand opened the tournament with a loss to France, but they have responded by laying waste to Namibia, Italy, and Uruguay.
Are we in store for a memorable match at the Stade de France?
Ireland vs New Zealand Odds
Odds are via Bovada.
Spread
- Ireland -2.5 (-115)
- New Zealand +2.5 (-105)
Moneyline
- Ireland -139
- New Zealand +130
- Draw +2200
Over/Under
- Over 44.5 (+100)
- Under 44.5 (-120)
Will Disappointment Descend Upon Ireland Again With History on the Horizon?
Saturday’s showdown with the All Blacks will be Ireland’s eighth appearance in the Rugby World Cup quarterfinals.
Rugby World Cup Quarterfinal Results for Ireland
- 1987: lost 33-15 to Australia
- 1991: lost 19-18 to Australia
- 1995: lost 36-12 to France
- 2003: lost 43-21 to France
- 2011: lost 22-10 to Wales
- 2015: lost 43-20 to Argentina
- 2019: lost 46-14 to New Zealand
Notably, only one of the teams that defeated Ireland in the quarters went on to win the tournament (Australia in 1991), so that is something to keep in mind if the All Blacks advance.
To this point, Ireland have done everything they needed to do, sweeping their pool matches and finishing first in their pool for only the third time.
A hard-fought 13-8 win over South Africa last month should serve as a confidence-builder for this match, and so should their recent history against New Zealand.
Overall, the All Blacks have a record of 30 wins, five losses, and one draw against Ireland. When you have won 487 of 634 of your matches, you’re going to have a strong record against just about everyone, and that’s the case for New Zealand, who are 191-31-6 against Six Nations teams.
But after going winless in their first 28 head-to-head meetings with the All Blacks, Ireland have five wins in their last eight fixtures with New Zealand.
They registered their first win against the All Blacks in Chicago in 2016, and last year, they won a series in New Zealand for the first time, winning the final two tests after losing the first.
However, one of the three New Zealand wins in this stretch came in the quarterfinals of the 2019 Rugby World Cup, a 32-point rout at Tokyo Stadium.
Recent Ireland (IRE) vs New Zealand (NZ) Head-to-Head Results
- 2022 (July 16 – Wellington, New Zealand): 32-22 IRE
- 2022 (July 9 – Dunedin, New Zealand): 23-12 IRE
- 2022 (July 2 – Auckland, New Zealand): 42-19 NZ
- 2021 (November 13 – Dublin, Ireland): 29-20 IRE
- 2019 (October 19 – Rugby World Cup QF): 46-14 NZ
- 2018 (November 17 – Dublin, Ireland): 16-9 IRE
- 2016 (November 19 – Dublin, Ireland): 21-9 NZ
- 2016 (November 5 – Chicago, Illinois, USA): 40-29 IRE
So, Ireland have had the upper hand as of late. But will they deliver when it matters most?
They are going with the same starting XV that produced a 36-14 win over Scotland last Saturday to wrap up pool play.
Scotland entered the game still with a chance to reach the quarters, but that was snuffed out ruthlessly. The final 22-point margin of victory is rather generous as well, as Scotland were behind 36-0 inside an hour but scored two tries to help over bettors have a winning day.
New Zealand, meanwhile, are going with a heavily changed team. That includes a start for winger Leicester Fainga’anuku, who scored a hat-trick of tries in the All Blacks’ Pool A finale against Uruguay.
The 23-year-old, who was born while his father was playing for Tonga in the 1999 Rugby World Cup and received his first name and two of his middle names (Wales and Twickenham) as a result, replaces Mark Telea, who won’t even be on the bench due to a breach of team rules.
Telea was a popular pick to be the tournament’s top try scorer, but he will end the tournament with only three if New Zealand go no further.
Ireland vs New Zealand Prediction and Picks
Prediction: New Zealand to win
Picks: New Zealand +2.5 (-105 at Bovada) & New Zealand team total over 20.5 points (-105 at Bovada)
Will Saturday be a historic day for Ireland? They are worthy favorites for the match, and they have really come to play in the tournament.
But I think their wait for a Rugby World Cup semifinal will continue, and their run of wins will come to an end one short of joining England and New Zealand in the record books.
Where to Bet on the 2023 Rugby World Cup
While rugby may not be one of the most widely watched or bet on sports in the United States, the Rugby World Cup always draws a lot of attention.
In fact, you can find 2023 Rugby World Cup odds at many of the top sports betting sites available to bettors in the USA.
Here are some of the online sportsbooks that we recommend which offer odds on each game in the tournament, as well as Rugby World Cup winner futures odds:
If you don’t have an account at a book on this list, check out our in-depth reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds. Happy betting, and please bet responsibly.
