Irish Champion Stakes: guide to the possible runners and tip
Who wins the Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown on Saturday? Andy Stephens studies the 13 in the mix and gives an early 1-2-3.
ALFLAILA
Trainer: Owen Burrows. Timeform rating: 131. Odds: 7-1.
Hukum and Mostahdaf have flown the flag for Shadwell Estate in great style this summer, and now they are rolling the dice with the progressive Alflaila, who they supplemented on Tuesday. The four-year-old is not at their level but he arrives on a roll, picking up from where he left off last season with a half-length defeat of My Prospero on his reappearance in the Sky Bet York Stakes last month. He did well to win at all that day given he was held up, as usual, in a muddling renewal. This first run at the highest level requires more, but it’s not easy to gauge exactly how good he is because of the way he swoops from off the pace.
BAY BRIDGE
Trainer: Sir Michael Stoute. Timeform rating: 130. Odds: 16-1.
It increasingly looks like softish ground is important to last year’s Champion Stakes winner, although he could also do with racing a bit more economically as keenness has been a feature of his three defeats this term. He came up short on his return in the Prix Ganay, when having his conditions, and was then outmuscled by Luxembourg in the Tattersalls Gold Cup before running well below-par in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes last time. Bay Bridge has got a bigger performance in him but the forecast dry, sunny week at Leopardstown will not help his cause.
BROOME
Trainer: Aidan O'Brien. Timeform rating: 122. Odds: 66-1.
There’s never been a winner of this race aged older than six, and this busy seven-year-old seems unlikely to be making history. The Irish St Leger, 24 hours later at The Curragh, seems a much more likely destination for a horse who tackles staying trip these days.
LUXEMBOURG
Trainer: Aidan O'Brien. Timeform rating: 131. Odds: 10-1.
He’s been a Group One winner at two, three and four; winning a strong renewal of this race last year in battling style 12 months ago. However, there have been frustrations amid the fanfare, especially in the interim with the downs outnumbering the sole up (a gritty win in the Tattersalls Gold Cup at The Curragh in late May). He’s been put firmly in his place at Ascot on his past two starts – in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes and King George – and fast ground remains an unknown, as he's unraced on anything quicker than good going.
MY PROSPERO
Trainer: William Haggas. Timeform rating: 130. Odds: 25-1.
Promised to be one to follow after his staying-on half-length third in the Champion Stakes, on what was only his sixth start, but he’s yet to spark. The mile of the Lockinge was probably on the sharp side for him on his return but he was disappointing next time in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes, when easy to back, and failed to take advantage of a drop in class at York last time, albeit he bumped into the progressive Alflaila. In truth, the Champion Stakes form hasn’t worked out and others have stronger credentials.
ONESTO
Trainer: Fabrice Chappett. Timeform rating: 130. Odds: 7-1.
Walk the course with Mick Kinane
The French raider was my fancy in this race last year and looked like winning when nosing ahead inside the final furlong, only for Luxembourg to deny him. We’ve only seen him three times since, not being seen to best advantage on any occasion. His belated return over an inadequate mile in the Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville last time was full of promise as he stayed on well to be fourth to Inspiral. The return to ten furlongs will suit and he shouldn’t be underestimated.
POINT LONSDALE
Trainer: Aidan O'Brien. Timeform rating: 123. Odds: 100-1.
O'Brien tells us about his team for the weekend
Won his first four races as a two-year-old before fluffing his lines at the Irish Champions Festival two years ago, when odds-on for the National Stakes. We’ve not seen much of him since and his star has slipped, with Team Balllydoyle employing him as a pacemaker for Auguste Rodin in the King George last time after a heavy defeat in the Coronation Cup. Again, he seems likely to be asked to do the donkey work for his stablemates.
NASHWA
Trainer: John & Thady Gosden. Timeform rating: 132. Odds: 7-1.
Snow Fairy, The Fugue and Magical (twice) have been fillies and mares to win this race since 2012 and, while she may not be as good as any of that trio, you rule her out at your peril. The daughter of Frankel ran as well as she has ever done when splitting Mostahdaf and Paddington in the Juddmonte International last time and, given she takes her racing well, I wouldn’t worry about this coming too soon for the three-time Group One winner. She’s well served by a sound surface, takes travelling in her stride, and only ever been ridden by Hollie Doyle.
AL RIFFA
Trainer: Joseph O'Brien. Timeform rating: 119. Odds: 15-2.
It was at last year’s Irish Champions Festival that he announced himself as a smart prospect, when winning the National Stakes. Classic aspirations had to be shelved when he had to miss the start of the campaign and he was rusty when beaten on his return at The Curragh in July. His latest effort, when chasing home Ace Impact at Deauville was much more like it, although the form took a knock when Birr Castle, who finished a close third, was beaten in a lesser race at Longchamp on Sunday. The way Al Riffa stayed on suggests he will be suited by a mile and a half, but he has no entries over that trip.
AUGUSTE RODIN
Trainer: Aidan O'Brien. Timeform rating: 130. Odds: 7-2.
Which version of him is going to turn up? The one who shone in the Derby before getting the job done in the Irish equivalent, or the one who sank without trace in the 2000 Guineas and was all but pulled up in the King George? It’s been all or nothing with him, and it will be fascinating to see which way he travels in the market, as it can often been indicator when it comes to the key Ballydoyle horses. I couldn’t have him on my mind after his flop at Ascot, although it was the same story for me when he won at Epsom. He scored over a mile at this meeting last year and the ten-furlong trip is less worrying than what is going on between his ears.
KING OF STEEL
Trainer: Roger Varian. Timeform rating: 129p. Odds: 9-4 fav
Belied odds on 66/1 in the Derby when beating all bar Auguste Rodin; looking the likely winner when bursting clear only to be clawed back in the closing stages. Went one better in convincing style in the King Edward VII Stakes and then was a fine third in the King George back at Ascot, travelling as well as any for a long way only to be outstayed by Hukum and Westover in the closing stages. The drop back to ten furlongs on quick ground promises to show him in an even better light and, having had only five races, there may be even better to come, especially as he is the type to keep growing into his imposing frame. He looks a worthy favourite.
SPREWELL
Trainer: Jessie Harrington. Timeform rating: 120. Odds: 40-1.
Looked a live outsider for the Derby after his win here in the mud in May and he ran creditably, plugging on to be fourth after not getting the rub of the green. However, he then ran poorly in the Irish Derby, perhaps resenting a second run on quick ground. Like White Birch, he now resurfaces after a break. It’s difficult to see him reversing Epsom form with King Of Steel, especially given this will be a speedier test.
WHITE BIRCH
Trainer: John Murphy. Timeform rating: 121. Odds: 50-1.
The grey was in fine form at the start of the year, springing a surprise in the Ballysax Stakes over course and distance in early April. However, his slow starts have turned into a nasty habit and he’s not looking the easiest conveyance. He kept on to be third in the Derby but then ran poorly in the Irish equivalent at The Curragh. A ten-week break may have refreshed him, although it’s hard to see him turning the tables on King Of Steel, even if he’s on his best behaviour.
VERDICT
Aidan O’Brien seeks a twelfth victory in this race but Auguste Rodin arrives with something to prove after his abysmal run at Ascot, while Luxembourg, the winner last year, looks vulnerable. King Of Steel looks a worthy favourite, given that his form is solid and that he could be even better dropping back to ten furlongs. Nashwa seems sure to give it another good go, with Alflaila giving Britain prospects of a famous 1-2-3.
1 KING OF STEEL. 2 NASHWA. 3 ALFLAILA.
