Jan. 4 NBA props, SGP picks and more: Nikola Jokic odds
The NBA is back with two premier matchups on Thursday night, and we’re here to share our favorite picks, props and same-game parlays for the midweek action.
Best NBA betting odds, lines and spreads
Jan. 4 NBA best bet: Nuggets -2.5 vs. Warriors (-110 or better)
Our favorite pick for Thursday's games is the Denver Nuggets (-2.5) against the Golden State Warriors. They beat them 120-114 on Christmas Day and won eight of their last nine regular-season matchups.
Nikola Jokic hasn’t been shooting the ball much lately, averaging just 20.5 points per game over his last 11 outings. Despite that, the Nuggets are 9-2 during that stretch and are overcoming some of the worst bench play in the league (26th in bench net rating).
Golden State’s 3-and-D identity is nothing but a distant memory as they’re 15th in 3-point shooting percentage and 19th in defensive rating. Klay Thompson also appears to have fallen back into his shooting slump and averaged just 10 points over his last four games.
Jan. 4 NBA props: Odds and best bets for NBA Thursday night
Several of the league’s best and brightest will be in action on Thursday — here are the players we believe will stand out above the rest.
Giannis Antetokounmpo props: Over 34.5 points (-118 or better)
The Greek Freak averages 30.9 points after a loss and 38.3 points on the second night of a back-to-back up to this point. The San Antonio Spurs are anchored by the active Victor Wembanyama but rank only 25th in defensive rating, which means Giannis should have plenty of scoring chances.
The Spurs are also down backup big man Zach Collins, which should make them even more porous in the paint. Both teams are top-four in average pace and will get tons of shots up.
Nikola Jokic props: Under 26.5 points (-104 or better)
How on Earth can the Nuggets win with Jokic going under his total? Well, as we mentioned, he’s been just over a 20-point per game scorer recently (including 19.3 points over his last three outings), yet Denver's won nine of 11 games. They’re also 11-7 when he goes under this total.
The Warriors did a nice job defending Jokic on Christmas and held him to 4-12 field goal shooting but also allowed him to go 18-18 at the free-throw line. If they can remain disciplined, they have a decent chance to keep him under his total.
Steph Curry props: Under 4.5 3-pointers made (-113 or better)
Betting Curry’s under is always risky business — however, went under in four of his last five games and only shot 3-13 from beyond the arc against Denver on Christmas. Denver’s slower tempo also means that he won’t have many opportunities to exploit mismatches in transition.
The Nuggets successfully sent tons of help in Curry’s direction the last time they played, which is a major reason why he struggled shooting the ball. Since Klay Thompson is also slumping, they’ll probably roll with a similar game plan on Thursday.
Jan. 4 Bucks vs. Spurs same-game parlay: Add these three props (+324 or better)
We combined a few of our favorite player props and betting picks for Bucks vs. Spurs into a same-game parlay. Let’s see how they look.
- Bucks spread pick: -9.5
- Giannis Antetokounmpo props: 30+ points
- Devin Vassell props: 20+ points
The Bucks are a prideful team that is coming off back-to-back losses to the Indiana Pacers. Although they’re only 15-18-1 against the spread, they have a chance to beat up on a team that has just five wins on the season and that is one of the worst defensive groups in the entire league.
Giannis scored 30+ points in five of his last seven games and averaged 30.8 on the year. The breakneck tempo of this game combined with the Spurs’ poor defensive personnel and injuries should give him plenty of space to dominate.
Vassell is one of the very few players on the Spurs that can get buckets in a hurry. Milwaukee’s strength is not on the defensive end, especially with Malik Beasley as their primary defender, and Vassell went over this line in three of his last five games.
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Grant is a Virginia-based writer for Catena Media who graduated from Virginia Tech in 2021 with a degree in sports media & analytics. He has contributed to well-known publications such as Forbes, and appeared on the VSiN TV network. You can keep up with Grant's work here or by checking out his YouTube channel "The Sitch With Grant Mitchell.”
