Jazz vs Heat Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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02 March 2024

Jazz vs Heat Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Jimmy Butler ramped up his offensive production in February and will be called upon tonight with some key guys potentially missing from Miami's lineup. We break down his scoring prop and more in our Jazz vs. Heat picks below.

The Miami Heat come into tonight’s matchup against the Utah Jazz as the favorite on home court despite potentially missing key players like Tyler Herro and Caleb Martin due to injury.

Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo led the way for Miami last month, helping the club go 8-3 in February, and they’ll likely have to do so again vs. a sliding Utah team.

Find out if Butler can lead his club to another victory in my Jazz vs. Heat NBA picks for Saturday, March 2.

Jazz vs Heat odds

Jazz vs Heat predictions

The Miami Heat had their five-game winning streak snapped on Thursday as they came up just short in a 103-97 loss to the Nuggets. Bam Adebayo (22 points) and Jimmy Butler (21 points) led the charge offensively while Tyler Herro (knee) sat out his third straight game and remains questionable for tonight.

That puts pressure on Miami’s top duo to perform, but that shouldn’t be any problem for Butler, who’s been as consistent as ever down the stretch. The small forward has scored at least 21 points in three straight games and nine of his last 10 contests while averaging 21.6 points per game in February.

The Utah Jazz haven't been very good defensively this season, allowing 120.4 ppg (25th), but those issues have been even more apparent of late. The Jazz are giving up 122.8 ppg since February 8 — the second-worst mark in the NBA over that stretch — while managing just one win in their last eight contests.

The Jazz have particularly struggled at defending close to the basket during their skid, allowing 52 ppg in the paint. That’s an area Butler can certainly exploit as he’s scoring 45% of his points in the paint and 32% from the free throw line — if he stays aggressive, he should get plenty of buckets and chances from the charity stripe tonight.

My best bet: Jimmy Butler Over 21.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)

Jazz vs Heat same-game parlay

Jimmy Butler Over 21.5 points

Heat -7.5

Jazz team total Under 107.5

While I like Butler to cash the Over on 21.5 points, I also like the Heat to cover the 7.5-point spread. Miami has covered in nine straight games while Utah is 1-7 ATS in its last eight outings.

I’ll round out my SGP by taking Utah's team total Under 107.5. The Heat own the league’s third-best defense this season, holding opponents to just 109.7 ppg, while the Jazz are scoring 113.4 ppg during their 1-7 stretch — a 4-point drop off from their season average.

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Jazz vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis

The Heat opened as a 7.5-point favorite for tonight’s contest and we haven’t seen much movement at all ahead of tip-off. With Miami picking up nine wins in its last 12 contests and most of those victories coming by a comfortable margin, I like the hosts to cover the spread even despite some potential injuries to key players.

The Heat’s defense is their bread and butter and that’s been apparent during this 12-game stretch. Miami is holding opponents to just 102.1 ppg over that span while not giving up more than 110 points in any of those games.

The Jazz, meanwhile, have fallen by at least eight points in nine of their last 11 defeats. Utah also owns the third-worst average scoring margin on the road at -10.5 while going 0-5 ATS in its last five contests as the visitor.

Tonight’s total opened at 223.5 points and we haven’t seen much movement on that front either. With Miami’s defense as locked in as ever, I like the Under.

The Heat are a notoriously low-scoring team at both ends and we’ve seen that again this season. Along with their third-ranked defense, Miami also owns the fourth-worst offense at just 110.4 ppg — and that will likely take a hit if Herro (knee) and Caleb Martin (thumb) do indeed sit out.

Lauri Markkanen has been a force for the Jazz but Miami’s been one of the best teams at defending the paint (47.3 ppg, sixth) as well as one of the best clubs in terms of defensive rebounding (72.9%, third), so that should neutralize the power forward to some extent.

Miami has cashed the Under in eight of its last 10 contests while Utah has done so in each of its last four games.