76ers vs Heat NBA Odds, Picks and Predictions Tonight

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01 March 2023

76ers vs Heat NBA Odds, Picks and Predictions Tonight

Miami pulled out the win in a grueling duel the last time these teams met, with Jimmy Butler stuffing the state sheet. With another great matchup here, our NBA betting picks are expecting Butler to repeat that performance tonight.

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With their hopes of reeling in the Top 2 in the East fading, Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers visit the Miami Heat tonight in what could be a first-round playoff preview.

The Sixers ended February with consecutive home losses, including a 101-99 setback against the Heat on Monday despite Embiid’s 27-point, 12-rebound night, and now their road form will be tested as they start a five-game trip.

Miami snapped a four-game skid with that win in Philadelphia, leaning on a near triple-double from Jimmy Butler, but the Heatles still need a strong start to March to climb back above the play-in line.

76ers vs Heat best odds

76ers vs Heat picks and predictions

Any time these teams go head-to-head, it’s hard not to wonder where the 76ers might be if the franchise had gone all-in with Jimmy Butler (and not Tobias Harris) alongside Joel Embiid back in the summer of 2019. We’ll never know — but Butler rarely misses a chance to remind Philadelphia what it’s missing.

The Heat star was at his best on Monday, finishing with 23 points, 11 rebounds and nine assists, including some big plays down the stretch to tilt the game in Miami’s favor — and I expect a similar stat line tonight.

With Kyle Lowry out, Butler is going to have the ball in hands a lot as a playmaker and a scorer. While he’s never going to be a high volume 3-point shooter, he can get his buckets in so many different ways, even with Embiid prowling in the paint.

Plus, there are usually some easy points on offer at the charity stripe for Butler, having had eight or more attempts at there in six of his last nine games.

I see the 76ers’ offense bouncing back a little after a poor outing on Monday, and Butler is the key for Miami to keep pace. I’m taking his points + assists total here in anticipation of another do-it-all performance, and he’s gone Over this number in four of his last six games.

My best bet: Jimmy Butler Over 27.5 points + assists (-105)

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76ers vs Heat spread analysis

With Philadelphia looking for payback for Monday night’s loss and dealing with a shorter injury list, the 76ers are slight favorites to grind out a win at Miami-Dade Arena. Doc Rivers’ team is 15-11 on the road this year but these are the big games where the visitors need to lay down a marker ahead of the postseason.

Numbers wise, something’s got to give here. Philadelphia is 4-1 against the spread in its last five road games against teams with a winning home record, while Miami has covered the spread in its last four home games against teams with a winning road record.

It’s the league’s weaker teams that have given the Heat trouble. They’re 0-4 ATS in their last four home games — a stretch that’s included visits from the Houston Rockets and Indiana Pacers, but still boast a 19-10 mark at home this season.

Five Miami players had double-digit points on Monday and that feels like the right formula again tonight, with Victor Oladipo giving Erik Spoelstra important minutes off the bench against James Harden and Tyrese Maxey.

76ers vs Heat Over/Under analysis

Monday’s battle was a low-scoring slugfest and that’s been a common theme between these teams. The defenses dominated portions of their playoff series last May (including a 99-79 Philadelphia win in Game 3), and the Embiid-Bam Adebayo matchup is always a must-watch duel. It’s no accident that the Heat and 76ers are both in the Top 3 for fewest points allowed per game this season.

With all that in mind, the line is conservative here, but still more than 15 points higher than the total these teams managed earlier this week at Wells Fargo Center. Part of that logic may be the (reasonable) assumption that Tyler Herro and Harden are unlikely to repeat their combined 8-for-27 shooting here.

Still, the Under is 4-1-1 in the Sixers’ last six games and 8-2 in their last 10 contests after allowing 100 points or more in their prior game. The Heat have trended towards the Under too — it’s hit in their last four home games against teams with a winning road record.