Jazz vs Magic Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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29 February 2024

Jazz vs Magic Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

The Magic are dominant at home as favorites and the Jazz struggle outside of Salt Lake. Utah has floundered everywhere of late, though, which could lend credence to Orlando being positioned as 5.5-point home chalk.

Having lost six of their last seven games, the Utah Jazz are perilously close to falling out of the Western Conference's play-in race. They find no relief tonight, however, as they take on the Orlando Magic, who are equally desperate for a win to advance their cause in the jumbled East standings.

Both the Magic and the Jazz had strong early runs that had many wondering how far they could go. While the Jazz have dropped off since the trade deadline, the Magic are still in the thick of the race for homecourt advantage.

The NBA odds project the Magic for a play-in spot, but if they can rack up enough wins against reeling teams like Utah, they’ll have a chance at locking up a Top-6 seed.

My NBA picks and predictions for Jazz vs. Magic expect Orlando to outclass the visiting Utah squad on Thursday, February 29.

Jazz vs Magic odds

Jazz vs Magic predictions

The Orlando Magic and Utah Jazz are two teams headed in different directions. While the Magic are forging ahead with legitimate playoff aspirations, Utah’s season has all but gone off the rails.

The Jazz have a -5.5 point differential over their past two weeks of play and are close to the Bottom 10 on both sides of the ball in that span. They lack an identity, one unique area of the game in which they can best most other teams.

Their 27-32 record looks respectable given the depth of the West, but they have won 3.8 more games than expected per Cleaning the Glass. That kind of clutch luck doesn’t typically last, and if the Jazz were a 23-36 team, we would look at them quite differently.

That’s the quality of team they are though, and they’ve been worse since they shipped out some core pieces like Kelly Olynyk at the trade deadline.

Olynyk is an underrated player. He’s an efficient scorer and a plus passer who can play four and five, which creates a workable level of spacing for almost any lineup. He’s an offensive hub and connector for less dynamic guards to work off, and Utah misses all those aspects of his game.

But the defense dropping off must have another explanation because that is not Olynyk's strong suit. I suspect that is largely a product of bad morale. To be playing for a team that undercut the roster at the trade deadline with no thought to how the team would have to finish out the season for the second straight year must be discouraging.

For someone like Lauri Markkanen, who is desperate to make the playoffs with this team as the number one guy, it is a bitter pill to swallow. It must be hard to rally a consistent effort to win when the organization is repeatedly putting its thumb on the scale to lose more.

The Magic are far from perfect, but they do have a clear identity that allows them to thrive even without elite offensive infrastructure. They’re also all on the same page about trying to win right now. They’re one of the NBA’s best rebounding teams, they draw a lot of fouls, and they force a ton of turnovers.

That lets them win the possession game against opponents so their defense does the rest. That will be the story against the Jazz tonight, too.

My best bet: Magic -5.5 (-110 at Betway)

Jazz vs Magic same-game parlay

Magic -6Paolo Banchero Over 21.5 points

Under 224

Paolo Banchero has missed Orlando's last two games with an illness. While he’s officially questionable tonight, I’m bullish on his chances of playing with most books offering props on him.

The unplanned time off might have been a blessing in disguise for Banchero as the offensive burden he has been forced to carry for most of this season has been wearing on him. Banchero’s efficiency isn’t what you expect for a star of his caliber, and the recuperation should allow for some bumps and bruises to fully heal.

I expect Banchero to come back fresh and with a vengeance against the Jazz. While Utah theoretically has big bodies capable of matching up with Paolo, its interior defense has been atrocious lately.

Overall, this should be a low-scoring contest. While the original line for this game was too low, enough money has come in to move it 4.5 points higher. When you can get nearly five free points by betting against the public, you should always strongly consider it.

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Jazz vs Magic spread and Over/Under analysis

The Magic opened as five-point favorites, which has since risen as high as -6.5 at some sportsbooks.

The Magic have been dynamite at home this season, going 18-8 against the spread, which is the second-highest cover rate in the Association. That extends to 11-3 ATS as home favorites, the top mark in the NBA. When they are supposed to win, they take care of business in a convincing fashion.

Utah has a similar if less impressive record at home but struggles outside of Salt Lake City, going just 12-17-1 ATS as the away team this season.

Oddsmakers expect this to be a low-scoring affair, with the total opening at just 219.5. Early action on the Over has seen that rise as high as 224.5 and I wouldn’t be shocked to see that bump another point or so before tip.

While I think Banchero will have a productive scoring night, I don’t think that is any argument against the Under. At this stage of his career, he is a high-volume/low-efficiency player. He takes a lot of bad shots because the Magic offense can’t manufacture better ones, and he doesn’t hit them at a great rate.

His 108.4 points per 100 possessions is in the 18th percentile among all bigs per Cleaning the Glass, but Orlando doesn’t have better options, so they need him to score even if it’s a grind to get there.

If Jonathan Isaac makes his return, he could put a serious damper on Markkanen’s production as well. Isaac has trouble staying on the court, but he’s easily one of the NBA’s five best defenders when he’s available. His presence alone could push this Under.