Jets vs Golden Knights Odds, Picks, and Predictions

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27 April 2023

Jets vs Golden Knights Odds, Picks, and Predictions

The Winnipeg Jets are down 3-1 in the series to the Vegas Golden Knights, and are shorthanded on offense. Our NHL betting picks are counting on Kyle Connor to deliver in Game 5.

The Vegas Golden Knights have a chance to move to the second round with a win over the Winnipeg Jets tonight on home ice as a decent -200 favorite.

Vegas is coming off a dramatic overtime win in Game 3 and a comfortable 4-2 win on Monday to take a 3-1 series lead. Vegas was 40 points longer at home in Game 2, but the Jets are now without their No. 1 defenseman in Josh Morrissey and top-line forward Mark Scheifele, while top-six winger Nick Ehlers is a game-time decision.

The movement in the moneyline is certainly warranted thanks to a gutted Jets squad, but that means Kyle Connor is slated to have a big game for the underdogs.

Find out where my best bets lie in our NHL picks and predictions for Jets vs. Golden Knights on Thursday, April 27.

Jets vs Golden Knights Game 5 odds

Jets vs Golden Knights series odds

Jets vs Golden Knights Game 5 predictions

Kyle Connor is currently tied for the playoff lead in shots on net at 24. He has a higher shot attempts/60 than Nathan MacKinnon, and will be asked to shoulder the offensive load with Mark Scheifele out and Nick Ehlers questionable. He’s also getting most of those attempts on net, as only Seattle’s Ryan Donato has a better shots on goal/60 than the Jets forward. He is shooting a ton and getting them on net.

Connor could see a bump in ice time if the Jets trail this game with the season on the line. The offense is thin and his linemates will be looking to get him the puck if the Jets are playing catch up. With Winnipeg one game away from ending their season, there is no time to be cute, which means pucks on the net.

That's likely a solid strategy, as Golden Knights netminder Laurent Brossoit is a goalie that the Jets have to beat, and have only done so once in four games. He has a .902 SV% in the series and came into the playoffs as one of the more questionable goalies.

With the injuries creating more offensive opportunities, the season on the line for Winnipeg, and a guy who is already in shoot-first mode, I’m willing to pay some tax on Connor’s Over 3.5 shots on goal at -125.

My best bet: Connor Over 3.5 shots on goal (-125 at BetRivers)

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Jets vs Golden Knights Game 5 moneyline analysis

The Jets have lost back-to-back games, but they've also lost some key pieces for a must-win Game 5 tonight in Vegas.

Josh Morrissey exited the dramatic Game 3 overtime loss and is done for the series. He’s arguably the team’s most important skater. Mark Scheifele logged under two minutes in a Game 4 loss and he’s out for tonight, which is a big blow as he was playing 20 minutes a night, centering a top-six line, and playing on the top power-play unit.

Finally, Nick Ehlers is questionable after missing the entire series, but it seems he is more probable than doubtful right now.

The injuries are significant for the Jets, but the books are pricing them in at around 40 points. And despite the Knights being up 3-1 in the series, the four games have been fairly close.

Looking at all strengths, the possession game has been even, with the Jets posting a 51% Corsi% but slightly being outshot 134 to 124. Looking at the quality metrics, they’re also evenly split, with Winnipeg posting a 51% scoring-chance share, and both teams having an even 50% on high-danger chance rate.

The difference in this series has been the play of Connor Hellebuyck in net, as he has a .895 SV% and the third-worst goals saved above expected of goalies with at least three starts. He's done his team no favors, but is still an elite goalie who can steal a game.

However, Brossoit has also posted a low save percentage at all strengths (.902) and is still a goalie that even a short-handed Winnipeg offense can beat.

Considering the injuries are priced in, this has been a very even series in terms of metrics despite the 3-1 series score. Perhaps the Jets at +170 holds the most value here.

Jets vs Golden Knights Game 5 Over/Under analysis

This series has seen the Over go a perfect 4-0. A lot of it has had to do with the poor goaltending on both sides, as neither netminder has impressed.

The Winnipeg power play has scored a goal in each game but is missing two-fifths of their No. 1 unit in Morrissey and Scheifele. During the regular season, Vegas was the least penalized team in hockey, so projecting four power-play opportunities for the underdogs is tough. Vegas has also scored with the extra man in just one of the four games in the series, and finished in the league's bottom half during the regular season in PP success.

The total hasn’t seen any adjustments in the series, and the characteristic goalie pulls in elimination games seem to be priced in here, as the total is juiced to the Over 5.5 after closing at -110 aside in Game 4 at Pinnacle. Neither team was profitable to the Over during the regular season, and if Hellebuyck can play like the Vezina winner he is, the Under is the right side tonight at -105 or better.

Neither team has been generating a lot of quality chances at 5-on-5,as the Knights sit 10th in expected goals/60, while Winnipeg is further down the list at 14th. So if you’re looking at it the other way, the Knights rank third in expected goal against/60 while Winnipeg sits seventh.

If this game is played mostly at 5-on-5, these low expected-goal trends should continue and favor the Under. It’s tough to see Hellebuyck continue to post these numbers.