Jim Harbaugh potential four-game suspension not affecting Michigan's 2023 college football or Big Ten futures odds

After another offseason of flirting with leaving for the NFL, Jim Harbaugh says he is at Michigan to stay for the remainder of his coaching career. However, Harbaugh is looking at a four-game suspension to start 2023 over an NCAA rules violation. BetMGM is among the sportsbooks to have noted it won't make any adjustments to the Wolverines' futures because of it, and it's pretty clear why.

There's no official suspension yet, but Harbaugh and the NCAA are in discussions about a negotiated resolution and the four-game duration. The NCAA is investigating the program for alleged violations during the COVID-19 recruiting dead period. Harbaugh faces a Level I violation, the most serious level, for not cooperating with NCAA enforcement. It could take a few weeks for the NCAA Division I Committee on Infractions to finalize the penalty.

"We are continuing to work cooperatively with the NCAA staff on an enforcement matter," Tom Mars, Harbaugh's attorney, said in a text to The Detroit News on Tuesday. "At this time, we are not allowed to comment on possible penalties or other aspects of the matter."

Harbaugh's club has reached the College Football Playoff semifinals in back-to-back seasons as the Big Ten champion but lost both times in rather embarrassing fashion. Following the 2021 season, Michigan was simply dominated by Georgia, and this past January it was nearly a double-digit favorite over TCU but was outplayed for the majority of the game.

Michigan is +105 at DraftKings to get back to the playoff, with No at -135. To win the Big Ten, it is a +165 favorite along with bitter rival Ohio State. The Wolverines have beaten the Buckeyes in back-to-back years. They meet in Ann Arbor on Nov. 25.

Michigan is set at over/under 10.5 regular-season wins and is +380 to go unbeaten, with No at -500. The only games in which it might be an underdog -- barring unforeseen circumstances -- are at Penn State and vs. Ohio State. For most head-to-head regular-season wins, both Michigan and OSU are -110. Harbaugh returns 13 starters, including quarterback JJ McCarthy and arguably the best 1-2 running back tandem in college football in Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards.

If Michigan played a good team when Harbaugh was sidelined, things might be different with any futures changes at the books, but the Wolverines have perhaps the easiest non-conference schedule of any Power 5 school. They'll play East Carolina of the AAC (8-5 last year but lost long-time starting QB Holton Ahlers among others; Michigan is -35.5), UNLV of the Mountain West (5-7 in 2022 and has new coach) and Bowling Green of the MAC (6-7), with all visiting the Big House over the first three weeks. That's a joke.

Rutgers has improved under Greg Schiano and visits Ann Arbor for Michigan's Big Ten opener in what would be the last game of Harbaugh's suspension. The Scarlet Knights have always been shredded by the Wolverines, though, and last year was no exception with a 52-17 final score (in New Jersey). In the past two seasons, Michigan is 15-0 at the Big House, averaging 39.2 points per game and allowing just 11.7. It will not need Harbaugh for those four games.

Moreover, the suspension is expected to apply for game days only. In 2018, then-Ohio State coach Urban Meyer was suspended for three games and was able to coach practice but not games. Michigan's schedule gets immediately tougher upon Harbaugh's return with back-to-back trips to Nebraska and Minnesota of the West Division – the Gophers could be a Big Ten title game opponent. Harbaugh is 74-25 during his tenure at Michigan, and 17-1 in Big Ten play over the past two years.

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