Juventus vs Napoli predictions: Serie A betting tips & odds

Juventus vs Napoli predictions

Juventus have top spot in Serie A in their sights when they host reigning champions Napoli on Friday night (TNT Sports 3, 7.45pm). 

With current league leaders Inter Milan not in action until Saturday, Juve have the chance to leapfrog their Derby d’Italia rivals with a win over the Neapolitans at the Allianz Stadium, where the home side haven’t lost all season. 

However, Napoli have the second-best away record in Serie A this season, winning the last four on their travels, and are on an eight-game unbeaten run in the league stretching back to last term.

They did the double over Juventus en route to the Scudetto last season but are struggling to mount much of a title defence with last week’s 3-0 home defeat to Inter leaving them 11 points off the leaders.

Walter Mazzarri’s charges can’t afford another defeat here but stopping a Juve side with a useful ability to get over the line in games could prove easier said than done. 

Football betting sites make the Bianconeri favourites to come out on top and we’re backing them to deliver as part of our Juventus vs Napoli predictions.

Top spot calling to Juve

Juventus boss Massimiliano Allegri was named Serie A’s manager of the month for November this week after maintaining the Old Lady’s excellent start to the season. 

The Turin outfit won two out of three in November before opening up December with a 2-1 victory over Monza, a result which extended their unbeaten run in the league to nine games.

They’ve won seven of those games, but haven’t been blowing teams away in that time, instead relying largely on their defensive resolve with five of those victories featuring a clean sheet. 

Against Monza, they showed their mettle, bouncing back from an injury-time equaliser to score a 94th-minute winner via Federico Gatti.

They’ll need to show plenty of mental toughness to hang in a title fight with an impressive Inter side and a win over the current Scudetto holders would certainly boost belief that they can win a first championship since the 2019-20 season.

Shutting down last season’s top scorer in Serie A, Victor Osimhen, will be one of the keys to victory for Juve. The Nigerian has only recently returned from injury and was a little subdued in the loss to Inter.

Keeping the mercurial Khvicha Kvaratskhelia quiet could prove trickier given his recent performances but the returns of Danilo and Alex Sandro from injury boost a backline that’s conceded just nine goals all season and boasts the league’s joint-lowest expected goals against figure (9.33), according to Fbref.com.

While Juve welcomes defenders back, they’ve been dropping like flies for Napoli with skipper and right back Giovanni Di Lorenzo likely to miss this game. He could join Mathias Olivera, Mario Rui and Alessandro Zanoli on the sidelines.

Missing so many key defensive pieces is a massive headache for Mazzarri and it’s difficult to see how he negates those absences. 

Napoli are a best-price of 21/10 to beat Juventus with betting sites, which may seem big given they are unbeaten away from home in the league and haven’t lost the last four meetings with the Old Lady. 

But they haven’t faced a team higher than eighth on their travels this year and look overmatched in an encounter with such a well-organised and motivated Juventus side out to avenge those two losses to Napoli last season.

Chiesa may expose depleted Napoli defence

If Juventus are to win the Scudetto, they’ll need a more reliable source of goals than current top scorer Dusan Vlahovic, who missed a penalty against Monza last week. 

The Serb has five goals this season, one more than Federico Chiesa, who is likely to cause the bigger headache for the Napoli defence.

The Italy international has been backing himself to score recently, resulting in him taking 18 shots across his last five games for club and country. 

Chiesa let fly three times away at Monza last week, the sixth time this season he’s had over 2.5 shots in a Serie A game.

Napoli’s defensive absences should make it easier to find room for a shot, but even before the injuries started mounting up, the champions were allowing a lot of shots with opponents hitting doubles figures in 10 of Napoli’s last 11 games.

Since being pushed further up the field by Allegri, Chiesa has regularly let fly and is 33/20 with new UK bookmakers, BetMGM amongst them, to have three or more shots on Friday.

Card count high in Turin

It’s not unusual to receive cards at this festive time of year, but Juventus have been receiving them frequently since the start of the season.

Only Lecce (41 yellows, two reds) have seen more cards in Serie A this season with Juventus having picked up 37 bookings in 14 games.

They’ve received multiple yellows in each of their last six games and have picked up two or more cautions in all but one of their home matches. 

Napoli’s card count has ticked up slightly since Mazzarri took charge but they’ve still only had 25 yellows and one red shown their way this season. 

They are conceding far fewer fouls per game on average than Juve too and referee Daniele Orsato may be speaking to the home contingent far more regularly. 

Betting apps show Juventus are the favourites to pick up the most cards in the game and we’re backing them to do just that with our last Juventus vs Napoli prediction.

Chris is an experienced sports betting writer who has worked with most major bookmakers and national media outlets, such as Racing Post and ITN. He covers a wide range of sports with his favourites being NFL, rugby, football and Formula 1.