Serie A Betting: Will Lazio Bounce Back vs Napoli?

When mulling best soccer bets today, consider after guiding Lazio to fifth place in his first season at the club, Maurizio Sarri’s side came second in 2022/23, their highest placement since winning the 1999/00 league title. The Biancocelesti finishing 16 points behind Napoli, who came away with their first Scudetto in three decades.

Today, however, Napoli sit ninth in the table, albeit four points from fourth place, and the soccer odds are against them as they look to finish in the top four and secure Champions League football for next season.

The Las Vegas sportsbooks value Napoli at +275 to finish in the top four, behind overwhelming favorites Inter, Juventus and Milan as well as Atalanta (+240), and ahead of Fiorentina (+300), Roma (+400) and Lazio (+400) in the betting lines.

The mid-season sacking of Rudi Garcia has failed to pay off, with the 62-year-old Walter Mazzarri returning to Napoli after a decade and kicking off his second tenure with a 2-1 win at Atalanta, followed up by three straight losses and back-to-back home winsi.

For the second straight year, the Partenopei were eliminated by a newly promoted side in the Coppa Italia Round of 16 with Frosinone pulling off a 4-0 victory in Naples, whilst the following match would see Napoli suffer two expulsions and lose 2-0 at Roma.

After drawing 0-0 to Monza, Napoli kicked off 2024 with a 3-0 defeat at Torino, before falling behind early on only to come away with a 2-1 victory against last-placed Salernitana courtesy of Amir Rrahmani’s 96th-minute winner.

They headed to Saudi Arabia and trounced Fiorentina 3-0 before falling to a 1-0 defeat in the Supercoppa Italiana Final with Lautaro Martinez breaking the deadlock in extra time for Inter.

Napoli’s away form under Mazzarri has been nothing short of shambolic with four straight defeats on the road, and I don’t expect that to change in their trip to the capital as they take on a Lazio side that is finding some momentum.

After picking up five straight victories and three clean sheets – including a 1-0 win against Roma in the Coppa Italia quarterfinals – Inter threw cold water on Lazio’s red-hot form with a 3-0 win in the Supercoppa semis, and after nine days rest, they have the perfect chance to respond. We’re expecting them to bounce back with a win against Napoli in our Serie A betting predictions.

Which Serie A teams are undervalued in the sportsbooks?

Lazio are a bargain buy at +130 as they look to pile onto Napoli’s misery.

Napoli Without Osimhen, Zambo

Lazio have shaken off a slow start and catapulted themselves to sixth in the table, two above Napoli and one behind fourth-placed Fiorentina, and unlike Napoli, who will face off against Barcelona in the UEFA Champions League Round of 16, Lazio are still competing on all three fronts.

They will take on Bayern Munich in the Round of 16, and they have a golden opportunity to win their first trophy since 2019 as face off against Juventus in the two-legged Coppa Italia semifinals in April.

Maurizio Sarri has won each of his last two encounters against his former employers, and he’ll be taking on a Napoli side that will be without several key players including Khvicha Kvaratshkelia, Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa and Victor Osimhen.

Lazio come in as the favorites at +130, and we’ll take those odds any day of the week. Since the October international break, Lazio have played 10 home matches and conceded a grand total of three goals, two in a 2-0 defeat to Inter on December 17.

With the exception of that loss, Lazio have won each of their last six matches at the Stadio Olimpico, and we’re backing them to continue that trend on Sunday.

Question Of The Day

Which team is likely to keep a clean sheet this weekend?

The odds and predictions in the article are based on the time of writing and publication. They may differ as to when the actual event takes place.