Kansas State vs TCU Odds, Picks, Predictions

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09 March 2023

Kansas State vs TCU Odds, Picks, Predictions

TCU feeds off turnovers, and the Wildcats should provide just that in the Big 12 quarterfinals tonight at the T-Mobile Center. Read why we're backing the Horned Frogs to advance in our Kansas State vs. TCU betting picks.

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The nightcap in the Big 12 tournament is a good one when Kansas State and TCU meet. Both teams received first-round byes, and each side will be well-rested for this evening.

TCU arrives looking as dangerous as anyone in the country. However, the big story here is the absence of Eddie Lampkin. It was announced yesterday that the big man would step away for personal reasons, and thus he will miss tonight's game along with the rest of the Big 12 tournament. The Horned Frogs were blitzed to end the season by Oklahoma but had won two in a row before that matchup.

Meanwhile, the Wildcats wrapped up the regular season on fire winning four straight before falling to West Virginia in their season finale.

What's the best bet for this one? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Kansas State vs. TCU.

Kansas State vs TCU best odds

Kansas State vs TCU picks and predictions

After speaking to a significant number of TCU beat writers and media, they were mostly dismissive about the absence of Lampkin having much of an effect on this game. In fact, some of the numbers paint a picture of the team being even better without him. I believe that TCU is the better team here, and I'm happily grabbing them on the moneyline to get the win tonight.

These two teams split the regular season meetings, but neither matchup means much to me. They last played at the beginning of February, and both programs are much different than they were at the beginning of last month.

The thing that should really scare you if you're a Kansas State fan is the turnover issues. The Wildcats have been their biggest enemy this season, ranking 283rd in the country in turnover percentage (20%).

That's a problem when you're facing TCU, as they boast the 23rd-best mark in terms of turnovers forced per possession. You have to do several little things in postseason play to grab wins, and taking care of the ball is one of them. It's difficult for a team to overcome lost possessions, and that makes up the foundation of my handicap this evening.

Those turnovers directly relate to the second part of this game, and that's the fact that Kansas State's transition defense is awful. The Wildcats have allowed 1.07 points per possession, 60%+ shooting, and rank second-to-last in the Big 12. That's not something you can overcome if you're going to give up free possessions and live-ball turnovers.

On the other hand, Emmanuel Miller, Shanda Wells, and Mike Miles have all been lethal transition scorers for the Horned Frogs. They'll have plenty of chances to show that today.

Everything about this game is built on Kansas State's lack of ability to maintain possession of the ball. The Wildcats have yet to show the ability to do so this season, and I'm not expecting that to change here.

That's music to the ears of TCU and head coach Jamie Dixon.

My best bet: TCU moneyline (-130 at PointsBet)

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Kansas State vs TCU spread analysis

We're on the Horned Frogs today.

Kansas State will give up the three-point line to TCU, as that's what teams have done most of the season. The Horned Frogs' spot-up numbers are some of the worst in the county and rank at the bottom among Power Five teams. This will leave a compact painted area for TCU to work in, but what it can do on the offensive backboard should be enough to overcome this.

The Horned Frogs' offensive rebounding rate ranks just outside the Top 50 of the country, while the Wildcats' defensive rebounding is around the national average.

Kansas State vs TCU Over/Under analysis

My projections are making this a total of 140, which means there is an 8-point differential between my projections and what oddsmakers say. Generally, that's an actionable differential, and I would jump on the Under.

However, given how much of this game will be played in transition, I will stay away. Additionally, the Under is 6-2 in TCU's last eight games and is 11-4 in Kansas State's last 15 against teams with a winning record.