Kentucky Derby 2023 odds, picks, post positions: Optimal Forte, Tapit Trice, Angel of Empire predictions
Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott was once the winningest trainer in the history of Churchill Downs. The 2019 Kentucky Derby winner with Country House after Maximum Security was disqualified for aggressive riding will have another chance to add to his impressive legacy at the 2023 Kentucky Derby on Saturday. Mott will saddle Rocket Can, who will ride from the outside and battle 18 other talented 2023 Kentucky Derby horses. The 2023 Holy Bull Stakes winner was also runner-up in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and finished fourth in the Arkansas Derby. Rocket Can is a 30-1 longshot in the 2023 Kentucky Derby odds, while Forte, who bested Rocket Can in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, is the 3-1 favorite in the 2023 Kentucky Derby field.
The 2023 Kentucky Derby post time is 6:57 p.m. ET. Before you make any Kentucky Derby 2023 predictions, you'll want to see elite horse racing handicapper Jody Demling's 2023 Kentucky Derby picks and analysis.
A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling enters the 2023 Kentucky Derby having nailed the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last five years, including an exacta in 2022 with Mo Donegal and Nest. He also nailed Flightline's win at the Breeders' Cup Classic last November.
Demling is at his best in the biggest horse races in the world like the Kentucky Derby 2023. In fact, he has hit 10 of the last 14 Derby-Oaks doubles at Churchill Downs. That means he held a ticket with the winners of both races all but four times in the last 14 years. He's also called nine of the last 18 Preakness winners, keenly understanding when the Kentucky Derby winner was poised for victory or a massive upset, and nailed the 2022 Preakness trifecta. Anyone who has followed him is up huge.
Now, Demling has handicapped the 2023 Kentucky Derby field, made his picks and constructed his bets. .
2023 Kentucky Derby predictions for Forte, Tapit Trice, Angel of Empire
One surprise: Demling is fading Tapit Trice, even though he's one of the favorites at 5-1. One of three horses trained by Todd Pletcher in the 2023 Kentucky Derby, this son of Tapit by Danzatrice has won his last four starts. After finishing third in his debut at Aqueduct last November, Tapit Trice returned to the same track six weeks later and managed to break his maiden.
He followed that up with a win in an allocation race at Gulfstream Park and then collected 150 qualifying points with wins at the Tampa Bay Derby and the Blue Grass Stakes. Distance may not be an issue given his pedigree, but the legendary sire Tapit has never produced a Kentucky Derby winner. Plus, for all Pletcher's considerable successes, he's only managed a 3.2% win rate and a 12.9% cash rate in 62 previous Derby starts. See who else to fade here.
Demling has also locked in his 2023 Kentucky Derby picks for Forte, the top favorite at 3-1. In an ideal world, a horse would establish his name as a two-year-old and then hit his three-year-old peak in the Kentucky Derby. But Forte may have reached his zenith at age two, when he reached a 100 Beyer Speed Figure at the Breeders' Cup. He hasn't topped that figure since then and only won by a length in his last start over Mage, a horse who has no graded stakes wins to his name.
With the lack of established stamina in his bloodlines as his sire, Violence, never attempted a race longer than 1 1/16 miles, Forte may be too risky a play as the 2023 Kentucky Derby favorite. See where Forte finishes here.
Demling also has a strong read on Angel of Empire, the third favorite in the latest Kentucky Derby odds 2023 at 8-1. One of four horses trained by Cox in the 2023 Kentucky Derby field, Angel of Empire is arguably the most accomplished of that group with wins this year at the Risen Star Stakes and the Arkansas Derby to his name.
Those victories helped him rack up 154 points in the 2023 Road to the Kentucky Derby standings and he's now produced four wins and a second-place finish in six career starts. However, he needed off-the-pace rallies in both of those prep wins and that could be a tall order against a field full of horses that prefer to stalk the pace. See where Angel of Empire finishes here.
How to make 2023 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is especially high on a big longshot who "has looked outstanding training at Churchill Downs and will be there with a shot in the end." Anyone who backs this horse could hit it big. He's sharing which horses to back only at SportsLine.
Where do Forte, Tapit Trice, Angel of Empire, and every other horse finish in the 2023 Kentucky Derby? And which enormous long shot is a must-back? Check out the Kentucky Derby odds 2023 below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed 10 Derby-Oaks doubles in the last 14 years.
