Kentucky Derby 2023: Odds, Dark-Horse Contenders and Predictions After Post Draw
Three of the last four Kentucky Derby winners closed with odds of 10-1 or higher.
Reading that trend alone will have diehard and casual horse-racing fans searching for the next dark-horse candidate to win the first leg of the Triple Crown.
A year ago, Rich Strike beat out favorites Epicenter and Zandon to cross the finish line first at Churchill Downs.
Rich Strike did not have a proven track record of winning before capturing the Kentucky Derby. That factor could lead to the chasing of some long shots with a similar buildup to the first Saturday in May.
Of course, the race could still be won by one of the favorites—Authentic won in 2020 from such a position—but there is always a chance that an unknown horse finds its way to the winners' circle.
Kentucky Derby Odds and Post Positions
Kentucky Derby @KentuckyDerbyPost Positions and Morning Line Odds for the Kentucky Derby pic.twitter.com/O6VZbjD5QV
Dark-Horse Contenders
Hit Show
Hit Show has a limited resume compared to some of the other horses in the field.
The Brad Cox-trained horse raced twice in 2023, but when he was on track, he was near, or at, the front of the pack.
Hit Show took first in the Withers Stakes in February and followed that up with a second-place mark in the Wood Memorial in April.
The most recent result of the two should excite the team surrounding Hit Show because that was the more prestigious race.
Hit Show has drawn a potentially ideal post on the inside. There will be no traffic to his left, and he can take the shortest way around Churchill Downs if he wants.
The inside group of horses may have a better chance of keeping the pace since Tapit Trice, one of three horses listed at 8-1 or lower, starts from post No. 5.
Hit Show could be worth a look solely because of its training staff. Cox won the 2021 Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes.
One of Cox's other horses, Verifying, starts to the right of Hit Show, and the two horses could team up to settle into the race on the inside and push for first in the final few lengths.
Rocket Can
If you are picking a horse on name alone, you can't get much better than Rocket Can in the 2023 Kentucky Derby.
The horse's owners, trainers and jockey hope that he lives up to his name over the 1¼-mile race.
Rocket Can finished inside the top four in each of his last five starts. The fourth-place finish in April's Arkansas Derby was his worst of the five finishes, but that result also occurred in his most competitive field to date.
Fellow Derby horses Angel of Empire and Reincarnate finished first and third in the Arkansas Derby, respectively.
Angel of Empire is listed alongside Tapit Trice and Forte as the three favored horses to win on Saturday.
Rocket Can won his maiden race and took second in another allowance race at Churchill Downs last fall, so he does have some experience on the track in shorter races.
Rocket Can started 2023 with a victory in the Holy Bull Stakes and a second-place finish behind Forte at the Fountain of Youth Stakes.
That experience at Churchill Downs—against two of the top horses in the field, no less—could help Rocket Can settle into the race and contend as the race gets deeper into the 1¼ miles.
Prediction
You can never rule out a dark-horse candidate capturing the Kentucky Derby title, but the 2023 field possesses three proven winners.
Tapit Trice, Forte and Angel of Empire come into Kentucky with multiple wins this season in some of the highest-profile races in the Derby buildup.
Forte is the reigning Breeders' Cup juvenile winner and won all four of his starts. It may be difficult for any horse to keep up the pace alongside him at Churchill Downs.
A dark-horse contender could find their way into the top three, especially if a favored horse folds down the stretch, but it is hard to imagine a long-shot winner emerging from a strong field.
1. Forte, 2. Angel of Empire, 3. Rocket Can, 4. Tapit Trice
