King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes: Jamie Lynch's runner guide and big-race verdict

Sky Sports Racing's senior analyst Jamie Lynch takes aim at Saturday's epic renewal of the King George, giving the lowdown on every runner and a big-race verdict.

BOLSHOI BALLET

Jockey: S M Levey | A P O'Brien

It feels a long, long time ago since he was the 11/8 favourite for the Derby in 2021. He's a Listed horse if he's anything these days, which begs the question of why he's here, and the answer is as a friend of Rodin, presumably to put the pace to the race.

DEAUVILLE LEGEND

Oisin Murphy | James Ferguson

Still a sense of unfinished business about him, but a stronger sense that he's biting off more than he can chew in an elite Group 1 such as this. Finished fourth as favourite in last year's Melbourne Cup, and staying races offer his best chance of his best days, ratified by his return in the Hardwicke to some degree, satisfactory as a start to the season but well short of what's required for this.

HAMISH

R Kingscote | W J Haggas

Low-mileage 7-y-o who covered himself in glory the one time he contested a Group 1, finishing second, but that was 1m 6f on heavy ground in the Irish St Leger, conditions which enabled him to put it up to Kyprios, and this lesser test and higher threshold will push pressure points he's rarely if ever felt. A King George like this one looks beyond his means.

HUKUM

Jim Crowley | Owen Burrows

"I'd love to see him in a King George in the summer, a wet King George." Jim Crowley has got his wish, in both respects, as each drop of rain has increased Hukum's chance of winning a race like this.

It's not as if he needs it soft, because he despatched Pyledriver, then Desert Crown on good ground on his last two starts, but the testing conditions may compromise others, while magnifying his menace, remembering how he went into beast mode in the 2021 Cumberland Lodge in the mud over this course and distance - worth revisiting if you haven't recently.

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He has been around for a long time, starting sooner than his baby brother Baaeed and still shining long after that one's retirement, and all of that experience across five seasons and 16 races - each and every one of them under Crowley - will serve him very well in an intense King George of fine margins whereby efficiency and proficiency could count for a lot, exactly as it did last year when the 3-y-os let themselves down.

LUXEMBOURG

J A Heffernan | A P O'Brien

"Whilst I'm personally extremely disappointed, I will continue to give my all." The words of Harry Maguire last week, but basically a copy-and-paste job for every player who loses the captaincy, some say stripped of it.

In a way, it feels like Luxembourg has lost the captaincy of Ballydoyle, the armband instead thrown to the younger, brighter A. Rodin. For a horse who won the Irish Champion and went off 4/1 for the Arc last year, it seems odd to see him at a double-figure price for the King George when his greatest crime in 2023 is to have gone sideways, scrambling home in the Tattersalls Gold Cup before being blown away by a nuclear Mostahdaf at Royal Ascot, at 2/1 favourite.

He's every inch the 'wise-guy pick' as the Americans would say, squaring his rating (of 122) with his odds, while there's a chance this second go at 1m 4f is just what he wants these days, but there's no ignoring he's lost some of his spark this season, as well as the captaincy, or so it seems.

POINT LONSDALE

A Kirby | A P O'Brien

He's 4/4 in Group 2 and 3 company, but 0/3 in Group 1s, which rather sums him up. And this is a Group 1+, if such a thing existed. He won't play a part in the finish but, in tandem with Bolshoi Ballet, it smells like he'll play a big part in shaping the race, whatever the Coolmore crew have cooked up.

PYLEDRIVER

P J McDonald | Muir & Grassick

There's that legendary line in The Usual Suspects: 'the greatest trick the Devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist'. You can almost rework that to 'the greatest trick Pyledriver ever pulled was convincing the world he wasn't very good'.

Here we go again, with the underdog badge pinned to Pyledriver, who's the best horse in the race on official ratings. That 124 figure was in fact 125 immediately after this race last year, in which he kept his head when all around were losing theirs.

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It is, of course, a far more packed and stacked field this time around and, though he'll do things his way, the right way, unflustered by the tempo and tactics of others, he only got his underdog tattoo because he lost more races than he has won, including six Group 1s, venerable but vulnerable.

There are strong similarities to Swain, likewise a 6-y-o when he won a second King George, against the odds, as 11/2 fourth-favourite behind the sexier types. Pyledriver is a proper horse, all his qualities highlighted in the Hardwicke on his latest reincarnation, but if something runs to north of 125 then that will do for him, and the likelihood is something will in this field.

WESTOVER

Rob Hornby | R M Beckett

What window are we going through today? A much smaller one than last year which, in hindsight, was his big window of opportunity for winning a King George, the 13/8 favourite but spoiling for a fight with his rider from the moment they left the paddock, too mean and keen to give himself any chance.

He has pulled himself together as a 4-y-o, no crabbing him whatsoever, simply overwhelmed by Equinox in the Sheema Classic and by Emily Upjohn in the Coronation Cup, before getting lucky to land on a Group 1 which wasn't really a Group 1 in France last time, albeit in a record time for the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud.

He's in a different position to the last twice, when a hot favourite, as this is in effect a free swing of the bat, with no target on his back, and there's a scenario (of a strongly-run race) which brings him into it, but can you really see him winning? I can't.

EMILY UPJOHN

L Dettori | J & T Gosden

Knowledge is power. The knowledge within Emily Upjohn comes from a trainer who has won the King George five times and a jockey who's won it seven, three times combined with Enable, who twice arrived via the Coral-Eclipse, as Emily Upjohn is.

And then there's her own knowledge, a year on from losing her non-hooded head when 3/1 for this, a harsh lesson from which she has grown, in tandem with the knowledge of the Gosdens in how best to manage her, seen to striking effect in the Coronation Cup at Epsom where she went into overdrive to make Westover look ordinary, when he's not. Is Paddington better than Auguste Rodin?

It's an unanswerable question, for now, at least in hard facts, but it is a very pertinent question because, if he is, it paints a powerful picture of how well Emily Upjohn did at Sandown against Paddington, for whom it was a home fixture in the sense of effectively a match race, over 1m 2f, in a time around 27 seconds faster than it will take to complete this King George, much more her bag, as she showcased in last year's Champions Fillies & Mares: her style plugs in perfectly with every element of this race.

AUGUSTE RODIN

R L Moore | A P O'Brien

Important. That's the most used word by Aidan O'Brien to describe Auguste Rodin, even "incredibly important" on occasion, because of that intercontinental cross of East and West, a blending of the blood of Deep Impact and Galileo, through the dam Rhododendron, a Group 1 winner in each of her three seasons at Ballydoyle.

And what do you get when you cross the streams of a Japanese icon and a European giant? A dual Derby winner, and that's perhaps just for starters. From cutting a sorry figure in the Guineas, it was a work of genius to turn him inside out in four weeks for Epsom and that doozy Derby duel with King Of Steel, the after-effects of which might explain his duller display in following up at the Curragh.

We know Auguste Rodin's reputation, and we've seen his body of work exhibited over the last year, so the burning question is: does the myth reflect the reality? His CV speaks for itself, but his rating (of 123) is unexceptional for a Derby winner, the same as Desert Crown's for context, and though his potential is profound, his price relies on it.

The micro battle is his next instalment versus King Of Steel, but the macro factor is how good they are in relation to the collective strength of these older horses, interdependent in that regard, because they were clear at Epsom and beat Group 2-class colts in their individual assignments since. This is the most important day for this most important horse, for finding out the true means from his genes.

KING OF STEEL

Kevin Stott | R Varian

In the remake of the 1986 classic, King Of Steel is reprising the role of Dancing Brave, opposite Auguste Rodin's Shahrastani. It's an appropriate parallel given their renewed relationship from the Derby, onto the King George, at the same time an unfair one given Dancing Brave's brilliance, but it's too early to assume the ability of King Of Steel, who's the least exposed horse in the line-up, as well as the biggest, and the incendiary fusion of those two facts is the most enthralling prospect in the entire race.

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Scientists have long struggled with the fact that the largest animals are not the fastest, but don't be fooled into thinking that King Of Steel's size means he's slow, by no means, as time and again this year we've been enlightened by Simon Rowlands, in his Sectional Spotlight, that King Of Steel has outspeeded various rivals at various times.

King Of Steel getting a nine out of 10 for his post-Derby performance, compared to Auguste's six, is one reason for revenge, along with the fact he's the lighter raced, but both are probably in the same boat in needing to power up to exceed their elders, more so than the market might suggest. Nevertheless, the hesitancy towards him is hypothetical, and the evidential material is as weighty as him.

JAMIE LYNCH'S VERDICT

One or both of the 3-y-os, Auguste Rodin and King Of Steel, could yet be a true top-notcher, and the star signs are there with the pair of them, but equally there's a presumption in their price - individually and combined - that they're ordained as such already, which makes an older-horse play a bit of a no-brainer from a punting perspective.

Had she finished half a length in front of Paddington rather than behind then EMILY UPJOHN would be favourite for this, which sounds a trite thing to say, but it's a sharp reminder of the positive of her performance at Sandown in the face of conditions nowhere near as suitable for her as they will be here, and she has shown in each of her last three races that she very much has the tools for this specific job.