Kings vs Cavaliers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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05 February 2024

The Cavaliers might just be the hottest team in the NBA at the moment and while the Kings are also playing well, we think this could be a bad matchup for the visitors. Find out why in our NBA betting picks below.

Without a doubt, the best matchup on the NBA odds board on Monday night is the Cleveland Cavaliers hosting the Sacramento Kings.

Quietly, Donovan Mitchell and the Cavaliers have arguably been playing the best basketball in the NBA for more than a month now. Cleveland has won 13 of its last 14 games, covering the spread 10 times over that span.

Meanwhile, the Kings enter this one also playing well, earning wins in six of their last seven games, and they’ve been seeing the early betting action.

But is the current line a little disrespectful to the Cavs considering how well they've been playing? I break down this matchup and bring you the best bet in my NBA picks and predictions for Kings vs. Cavaliers.

Kings vs Cavaliers odds

Kings vs Cavaliers predictions

The Cleveland Cavaliers are on one hell of a run.

The Cavs have won 13 of their last 14 games where they lead the NBA in net rating. Donovan Mitchell is balling, putting up 28.7 points, 7.6 assists and 5.2 rebounds per game. And the defense has been elite.

Cleveland leads the NBA in defensive rating and is third in scoring defense, allowing 109.7 points per game over that stretch. Overall, it ranks third in opponent effective field goal percentage and ninth in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.

The Sacramento Kings also come into this game playing well, having won six of their last seven games overall. That said, the Kings’ offense just doesn’t seem to have the same scoring punch it did a season ago.

Sacramento ranks a middling 14th in offensive rating. That offense is fueled by a few things: Domantas Sabonis in the middle, De’Aaron Fox drives, and shooting threes. Unfortunately, for the Kings, the Cavaliers' defense is perfectly built to handle those things.

With Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen on the inside, they have more than enough to harass Sabonis. They will also deter a lot of Fox drives, likely forcing the ball out of his hands more than he'd like. That means the Kings will likely live and die on the 3-point line tonight, but the Cavs also allow the eighth-fewest threes per game.

So, Cleveland’s defense can handle Sacramento’s offense but the same can’t be said if the roles are reversed. I’m not sure the Kings can handle Mitchell and Co.

While the Cavaliers defense is playing at an elite level over this 13-1 run, the offense hasn’t been too shabby either. They rank fifth in offensive rating and sixth in eFG% during that period and now face a Kings defense that ranks 17th in rating and 23rd in opponent eFG%.

This is also the finale of a lengthy seven-game road trip for the Kings and fatigue could set in.

The Cavaliers opened this matchup as 5.5-point favorites but have been bumped down to 3.5, but at this new number and considering the Cavs’ matchup edges, I’ll happily lay the points in this spot.

My best bet: Cavaliers -3.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Kings vs Cavaliers same-game parlay

Cavaliers -3.5

Darius Garland Over 13.5 points

Darius Garland Over 5.5 assists

It’s kind of wild to think the Cavaliers could be playing even better. They’ve only had Darius Garland for the last three games during this 14-game stretch.

Garland missed a large portion of the season thanks to a broken jaw, but he's back... albeit on a minutes restriction, and he's also questionable for tonight’s matchup with knee soreness. If he does manage to suit up, I really like this matchup for him.

So, let’s start by adding Garland to go Over 13.5 points. Garland put up 19 points in his first game back but only had 13 in the next two combined, but he averaged 20.7 points per game before breaking his jaw.

The Kings struggle with opposing guards, ranking 20th in points allowed and 21st in field goal percentage allowed to them.

I also like Garland to go Over 5.5 assists. Once again, he averaged 5.9 assists before the injury and already has a game with seven assists — in limited minutes — since his return. The Kings rank 20th in assists per game allowed to opposing guards.

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Kings vs Cavaliers spread and Over/Under analysis

As noted, the Cavaliers opened this intriguing NBA matchup as 5.5-point home chalk and have been bet down to 3.5 as of Monday afternoon. As I broke down above, I’m happy to lay the points with Cleveland in this spot, because I don’t believe that the Kings match up well with the Cavs.

The total hit board at 231 and early NBA bettors were quick to jump on the Over, moving the line up to 234.5.

This movement is saying that some believe the Kings' offense will have success against this Cavaliers defense, but I’m not so sure that will be the case. I'd lean toward the Under at this new number.