Kings vs Pacers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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02 February 2024

Kings vs Pacers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Despite playing on the second leg of a back-to-back, the Indiana Pacers are being undervalued at home tonight when they play host to Sacramento. Ed Scimia explains more in our Kings vs. Pacers betting picks.

Two teams with playoff aspirations will look to rebound from losses on Friday as the Sacramento Kings visit the Indiana Pacers.

While the Pacers have suffered consecutive road losses to Boston and New York, they have been boosted by the return of Tyrese Haliburton. Meanwhile, despite falling short in Miami on Wednesday, the Kings are favorites in the NBA odds to bounce back with a win tonight.

Indiana has been careful with Haliburton since his return from injury, but the star guard should play enough to have an impact on tonight’s game. We’ll discuss how this matchup will play out in our free NBA picks and predictions for Kings vs. Pacers on February 2.

Kings vs Pacers odds

Kings vs Pacers predictions

Tonight’s game will be the second meeting this year between the Sacramento Kings and Indiana Pacers. In the first matchup, which came just two weeks ago in Sacramento, Indiana built a 13-point halftime lead and held on for a 126-121 road win.

There’s good news and bad news for the Pacers when it comes to comparing tonight’s game to that contest. Indiana was completely without Tyrese Haliburton in that January 18 win, as he suffered a hamstring injury that cost him 11 games. Haliburton may (or may not) be on a minutes limit tonight, but even 20-25 minutes of him seeing the floor is a huge boost over his complete absence.

Some bettors may be concerned that Bennedict Mathurin missed last night’s game with the Knicks with a reported toe issue, his second straight scratch this week. In the absence of Haliburton, Mathurin scored 25 points to lead Indiana in that first win over Sacramento. However, there’s been no indication that Mathurin is seriously hurt, and it may well have been a coach’s decision to hold Mathurin out on the first night of a back-to-back.

Ultimately, expect that both Haliburton and Mathurin will suit up tonight. Haliburton is rounding back into shape and only played 22 minutes last night, so he’ll likely do about the same in tonight’s game. Mathurin isn’t as clear an inclusion in the lineup, but he’s also less critical to this matchup, as Andrew Nembhard has proven capable — if not overly impressive — when filling in for Indiana’s starting guards.

The Pacers also have another ace up their sleeve. One day after that first meeting with the Kings, Indiana acquired Pascal Siakam from Toronto. Since that trade, Siakam has averaged 21.1 points per game for the Pacers, slipping right into the lineup and allowing Indiana to play a bit bigger at times — another benefit if the Pacers can’t always have Haliburton and Mathurin on the court together.

On balance, these changes seem to put the Pacers in a better position tonight than they were in the first game against the Kings. Indiana will also be playing at home, providing another small advantage for a team that is 16-9 at home and under .500 on the road.

Yet despite all these factors, the Kings are road favorites tonight. This is almost certainly because the Pacers are playing the second game of a back-to-back, which is always an important factor to consider.

However, that’s not enough for me to ignore everything else about this matchup. With plus odds available, I’m taking Indiana to win this one outright at home.

My best bet: Pacers moneyline (+125 at BetMGM)

Kings vs Pacers same-game parlay

Pacers moneyline

Under 248

De'Aaron Fox Under 27.5 points

Along with taking the Pacers to win this one outright, I’m also picking the Under for tonight’s game at a rather high total of 248. Neither team averages playing to a total this high, as the first matchup between these two sides saw the Under 247 cash. The Kings also tend to play well below the pace that would produce a score in the 250 range.

We'll wrap up tonight's SGP by taking Kings star De’Aaron Fox to go Under his scoring total of 27.5 points. Fox has gone below this total in his last two games and four of his last six, and only averaged 22.5 ppg in January.

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Kings vs Pacers spread and Over/Under analysis

The Kings opened tonight's game as a three-point favorite. That remains the consensus spread, with a few sites offering Sacramento -2.5 as the main line. You’ll find -110 on either side at most books on the three-point spread, though I was able to find Indiana at reduced -108 pricing while shopping around.

Both sides have played well against the spread this season. The Pacers are 27-19-3 against the spread on the year, while the Kings have posted a 24-21-1 ATS mark.

The Pacers deserve to be a slight favorite tonight at home even on the back end of consecutive games. This team has improved with the addition of Siakam, and getting reasonable minutes out of Haliburton is another factor that wasn’t there in the first meeting between these teams. I’m taking Indiana to win outright, but I think taking the Pacers with the points also makes a lot of sense tonight.

Tonight’s total opened at a flat 248 points. The consensus Over/Under is now 248.5 points, with -110 odds available on either side of the market.

The Pacers have played to higher totals this year, with the Over going 28-21 in Indiana’s games. The Kings have played closer to the number, with the Under holding a slight 24-22 advantage in Sacramento's games this season.

Rather than worry about those trends, however, I think the number itself dictates our bet tonight. A total of 248.5 is simply too high, as the Kings have come in Under this number in six of their last seven games — including the first meeting between these two teams.

Even the high-scoring Pacers have done the same in seven of their last 10, so I'm leaning hard towards the Under tonight.