Pacers vs Thunder Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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12 March 2024

Pacers vs Thunder Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Two of the NBA's most potent offenses square off in Oklahoma City as the Thunder host the Pacers. Inflated totals have been the order of the day and the Under might actually be in play, but there is better value available in alternate markets.

The Western Conference-leading Oklahoma City Thunder will look to pick up a fourth straight win when they welcome the Indiana Pacers to Paycom Center tonight.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to lead OKC’s offense, scoring 30+ points in 10 of his last 12 games coming into tonight’s matchup with the Thunder listed as favorites in the NBA odds.

Will SGA put on another show against Indiana? I’ll look ahead to that and more in my Pacers vs. Thunder NBA picks and predictions for Tuesday, March 12.

Pacers vs Thunder odds

Pacers vs Thunder predictions

It was a short but sweet night for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in his last game on Sunday as he dropped a team-high 23 points in just 27 minutes to lead the Oklahoma City Thunder to an easy 124-93 win against the Grizzlies.

SGA comes into Tuesday on fire with at least 30 points scored in 10 of his last 12 contests and 35+ points in three of his last five games, so I’ll look for him to stay hot and drop Over 32.5 points against the Indiana Pacers.

The potential NBA MVP is averaging just over 20 field-goal attempts per game this month, including 23 or more in three of his last five contests. That high-volume approach should pay dividends for Gilgeous-Alexander against the Pacers, who rank second last in the NBA in opponent field goals made per game this season (45.1).

Indiana’s league-leading offense has been able to outscore its defensive woes for the most part, but the Pacers’ weakness in their own half is something that SGA can exploit en route to another big performance. The Pacers are allowing 121.5 ppg — second worst in the NBA — and have given up 115+ points in six of their last 10 contests.

Indiana could also be without Jalen Smith (illness), who ranks third on the team in defensive rating (118.1) — not a huge piece for the Pacers but another potential chink in their already weak defensive armor.

My best bet: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 32.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)

Pacers vs Thunder same-game parlay

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 32.5 pointsPascal Siakam Over 20.5 points

Under 238

Along with taking SGA to hit Over 32.5 points, I’ll also look for Pascal Siakam to have a big night for the Pacers and cash the Over on 20.5 points. With Bennedict Mathurin out for the season, Siakam will be Indiana’s primary scorer. He’s scored 20+ in seven of his last 10 games and will get plenty of touches tonight.

The Pacers (122.9 ppg) and Thunder (120.8 ppg) are the first and third-highest scoring teams in the NBA but have been surprisingly sluggish of late, averaging just 113.2 and 116.2 ppg, respectively, in March. As a result, I’ll go with the Under to round out my same-game parlay.

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Pacers vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis

The Thunder opened as the 6.5-point favorite on home court while tonight’s total opened at 238.5 points. I like OKC to cover the spread while cashing the Under.

Oklahoma City has the second-best average scoring margin in the NBA at +8 and has won by at least seven points in each of its last 12 victories. The Thunder have been hot with 10 wins in their last 12 while going also 8-4 ATS over that span.

The Pacers, meanwhile, have cooled off with three wins in their last seven games while going 3-4 ATS through those contests. Indiana has lost by at least eight points in six of its last seven defeats and will likely feel the loss of Mathurin, who’s been their most important player off the bench.

While this looks like a potentially high-scoring matchup on paper between two of the NBA’s top offenses, there could be some key offensive pieces out on both sides. While Mathurin is done for the season, Smith is questionable with an illness for Indiana, and Jalen Williams (ankle) — OKC’s second-leading scorer — is also a question mark.

The Pacers in particular have been playing some low-scoring basketball, recording fewer than 112 points in four of their last five games while cashing the Under in 10 of their last 13 outings.