Knicks vs. Cavailers odds, picks, predictions for series

The fifth-seeded New York Knicks take on the fourth-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs with game one on Saturday night at 6 p.m. at Rocket Mortgage Field House.

In this matchup, the Cavaliers are the favorites on Tipico Sportsbook as they're -210 to win the series while the Knicks are +165.

The Knicks had the advantage in the regular season as they won three of the four matchups including the last matchup on Mar. 31 when point guard Jalen Brunson led the way for New York with a season-high 48 points in a 130-116 victory in Cleveland.

Here's my preview and prediction for who will advance to the second round with odds presented by Tipico Sportsbook.

Offense: Advantage Knicks

The Knicks averaged 116 points per game this season, nearly four more points per contest than the Cavs (112.3 PPG). Even without All-Star Julius Randle for the final five games of the regular season, New York still averaged 125.4 PPG. A big reason for that was the emergence of Immanuel Quickley, who amassed 28.8 points per contest over the final four games.

Cleveland ranked only 25th in the NBA in points per game but did score 115 or more points in nine of its last 12 games, going 8-4 in that span. On offense, the Cavaliers are led by Donovan Mitchell, who had a career-high in PPG (28.3) and field goal percentage at 48.4 percent in his first season with the Cavs.

Even with Randle likely unavailable at the beginning of this series, New York still has the slight advantage on this side of the ball.

Defense: Advantage Cavaliers

There's no question the defensive side of the ball favors the Cavaliers. Cleveland ranked first in the NBA in opponents points per game this year (106.9). Outside of the aforementioned Mar. 31 matchup, The Cavs held the Knicks to 108 points or fewer in the first three contests. It starts and ends with Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, who both averaged over a block per game this season.

Meanwhile, the Knicks finished middle of the pack in OPPG (113.1) during the 2022-23 regular season. One key area to keep an eye out for is on the glass. New York ranked seventh in defensive rebounds per game while Cleveland finished 25th in rebounding on offense.

The Cavaliers easily hold the advantage on defense and could be the deciding factor in this series depending on if/when Randle plays.

Series prediction: Cavaliers 4-2 (+450)

This matchup starts and ends with the health of Randle. If he's able to suit up in either of the first two games in Cleveland or at Madison Square Garden in game 3, New York undeniably has a chance to pull off the upset. However, the Cavs combo of Allen/Mobley defensively and Mitchell and Darius Garland on the offensive end will be too much for the Knicks to handle.

Other bets on Tipico Sportsbook I would place is for the series to end in six games (+215), the Cavaliers to cover the series spread of -1.5 (+105) and the over 5.5 games played at -190.