Knicks vs Cavaliers NBA Odds, Picks and Predictions

Donovan Mitchell lit nets on fire down the stretch, and launched plenty of bombs from long range. Our NBA picks don't see that changing too much against the Knicks in Game 1.

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Donovan Mitchell nearly signed with his hometown New York Knicks this offseason, but now he’s tasked with leading the Cleveland Cavaliers past them in an Eastern Conference Quarterfinal series that begins this Saturday night at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. 

The Cavaliers fired the opening salvo in the head-to-head series this season, winning 121-108 on Oct. 30, but lost the final three meetings of the year while failing to cover each time. However, the Knicks are not at 100% heading into this tilt. Jalen Brunson has been playing through pain for much of the second half, and has sat idle since April 2. Julius Randle is considered a game-time decision with an ankle injury that’s seen him sidelined since March 29.

How will Game 1 shake out? Find out in our free NBA picks and predictions for Knicks vs Cavaliers on Saturday, April 15.

Knicks vs Cavaliers best odds

Knicks vs Cavaliers picks and predictions

Cleveland Cavaliers shooting guard Donovan Mitchell played like a man possessed at the end of the regular season, scoring 40 or more points in four straight games before being put on the shelf for his team’s final two tilts. That included a 42-point effort vs. the New York Knicks on March 31. 

The NBA player props market has adjusted for this, bumping Mitchell’s total points prop to 30.5, up from a high of 28.5 in his final regular-season tilt. Considering how low the total is for this contest (more on that later), and the fact that “Spida” averaged only 28.3 ppg this year, that doesn’t seem like an ideal wager. However, NBA odds have Mitchell at 3.5 3-pointers made, in line with where it’s been for him in six straight contests. Bettors might be sacrificing a little juice, but Mitchell looks like a great bet to get to four threes tonight.

Mitchell has taken no fewer than nine 3-point shots in eight straight games, making an average of 3.9 of those. He’s cleared 3.5 threes in four of his last five overall, including a 6-for-9 shooting night from distance against the Knicks in their most recent matchup. In fact, Mitchell was 22-for-47 (46.8%) from downtown in four meetings with New York this year, making at least six treys in three of those four affairs.

The Knicks have been soft when it comes to 3-point defense this season, seeing the fifth-most opponent attempts per game in the NBA (36.5), and the sixth-most makes (13). Mitchell has been smart enough and skilled enough to take advantage of this, and he should do so again on Saturday night.

My best bet: Donovan Mitchell Over 3.5 3-pointers made (-136)

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Knicks vs Cavaliers spread analysis

The Knicks have won and covered as 2.5 to 3.5-point underdogs in three straight meetings with the Cavaliers, and now they’ll catch five points for Game 1 of the quarterfinals. 

The consensus opening line moved slightly from Cleveland -5.5, likely after the news broke that Julius Randle is targeting a return to play in this spot. He’s unlikely to be at full strength, but he’d be an invaluable contributor to New York tonight even if he isn’t. Only Joel Embiid, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Anthony Davis have joined Randle in averaging at least 25 points and 10 rebounds this season.

Strength meets strength when it comes to home/road splits. The Cavs went 31-10 SU and 24-16-1 ATS at home, while the Knicks went 24-17 SU and 26-14-1 ATS as visitors. 

The Knicks were second only to the Kings in offensive rating since the All-Star break (120.4), but that success has come at the cost of their defense, as New York is 18th in defensive rating (115.7) in the same span. Cleveland is 13th in offensive rating (116.8) since the mid-season hiatus, but seventh in defensive rating (111.6) in that stretch. They’re also No. 1 in the NBA in points allowed per game (106.9), so that free-wheeling style of play the Knicks are employing of late could work to their detriment here.

Knicks vs Cavaliers Over/Under analysis

A Knicks-Cavs series was almost a certainty since the latter part of March, and with a week between the end of the regular season and this playoff opener, head coaches Tom Thibodeau and J.B. Bickerstaff have had plenty of time to game plan. 

One might think that would give Under bettors an edge, since the defenses can focus on taking away the strengths of opposing offenses after studying the tape, but the trends run counter to this line of thought. The Over is 5-2 in the Knicks’ last seven games played on three or more days of rest, and 4-1-1 in the Cavaliers’ last six games in the same situation.

With these clubs mostly running on autopilot down the homestretch, I’m not sure recent Over/Under trends will be much help in handicapping the total. As for the head-to-head series, the teams went 2-2 to the Over, where the number ranged from 220 to 222.5. 

The first meeting cleared the total by nine points, and the latest tilt went Over by 25.5 points, thanks to 40-point nights from Brunson and Mitchell. The other two games went Under by 13 and 49.5 points, respectively.

That sample doesn’t help much either, so I’ll lean toward the Over simply as a play against a lower number of 217.5.

Knicks vs Cavaliers betting trend to know

The Over is 8-2 in the Knicks’ last 10 road games vs. teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Find more NBA betting trends for Knicks vs. Cavaliers.