Knicks vs. Cavaliers prediction, odds: The injury report keys bet on the total
The NBA playoffs are starting to settle in, and we have a Knicks vs. Cavaliers prediction for Game 2.
New York won Game 1 on the road after closing as 5.5-point underdogs. Surprisingly, bookmakers haven’t done much to adjust their numbers, given that the Knicks are catching 5.5 points yet again.
As for the total, we’ve seen some sportsbooks adjust their number down as much as a whole point after it opened at 214.5. In this preview, I’ll share why the total might offer the best value for this Game 2 matchup.
Spread: NYK +5.5 (-110) vs. CLE -5.5 (-110)
Moneyline: NYK (+180) vs. CLE (-225)
Total: Over 214.5 (-110) | Under 214.5 (-110)
Under 214.5 points
I referenced the importance of the Knicks’ bench in my Game 1 preview. And true to form, New York’s bench outscored Cleveland’s 37-14.
However, the Knicks could be without Josh Hart, who came off the bench to score 17 points. Hart is listed as doubtful with a sprained left ankle after landing on Julius Randle’s foot while attempting a rebound.
In some ways, I feel even more concerned about Hart than when Randle missed time at the end of the season with a similar injury. For one, New York got some games under their belt with Randle sidelined, so I felt they’d be more prepared to deal with his absence if he missed Game 1.
Randle returned to play in Game 1, scoring 19 points though he did have a plus/minus of -8. But the main reason I have an even greater concern this time around with Hart is that his injury could impact New York’s advantage with its bench heading into this matchup.
The Knicks won’t just miss his scoring but also what he does on the other end of the court. For a player listed as a 6-foot-4 guard, Hart is a tremendous rebounder. He averaged 7.8 boards this season and collected 10 rebounds against the Cavaliers.
All that goes right out the window if he doesn’t suit up.
However, Hart’s status could create a greater emphasis on the total. Betting the under during the first round of the postseason is one of the more profitable angles you can find. According to our Action Labs database, bettors in this spot are 417-367-11 for 26.92 units.
It’s worth noting that Cleveland was the slowest team in tempo this season, with 99.7 possessions per game. In Game 1, that number was down to 96.7.
With these slower-paced games often the norm during the postseason, I’ll take a shot with the under at 214.5.
