Kraken vs. Stars odds, prediction: Will Dallas deliver at home in Game 7?
The field for the NHL conference finals has three of the four teams in place.
The final piece of the puzzle will be added Monday night, when the Seattle Kraken visit the Dallas Stars for Game 7 of a Western Conference semifinal series.
As has been the case the entire series, the Stars will hit the ice as the betting favorite — and a significant one at that.
However, Seattle already has won once in Dallas. The Kraken also have a Game 7 road victory under their belt, having dispatched the defending champion Colorado Avalanche in the first round.
Which side will prevail in Monday’s winner-or-go-home clash and set up a date with the Vegas Golden Knights in the Western Conference final?
Here’s how we’re betting Game 7 of Kraken vs. Stars.
Odds updated as of noon ET on May 15.
Kraken vs. Stars Prediction
Stars puck line, -1.5 goals (+122) (at Caesars Sportsbook)
Kraken vs. Stars Prediction: Analysis
For a second-year franchise, the Seattle Kraken are a feisty bunch. They’re also dangerous, as the Stars know all too well.
After winning three of four games following an upset at home in Game 1, Dallas had a chance to finish off this series in Seattle on Saturday night. Instead, the Kraken raced out to a 4-1 lead before the end of the second period and cruised to a season-saving 6-3 victory.
These teams have now met nine times since mid-March, and two things have remained consistent: Seattle has been a decided underdog in every game, and every game has flown Over the total.
So why not take some betting value with a live underdog? Or just roll with the Over one more time?
Answer to the former: Because the Stars are the better team with not only the better goaltender, but the best goaltender still remaining in the playoffs.
Answer to the latter: Because you rarely see seven goals scored in Game 7 of an NHL playoff series — even though seven or more goals have been tallied in eight of the nine meetings in this rivalry. And the only one that didn’t was a 4-2 final (Game 2 of this series in Dallas).
Of course, laying better than 2-to-1 odds with the Stars on the moneyline isn’t exactly enticing, either.
So we’re rolling with a plus-money wager on the puck line — for a variety of reasons.
First, Dallas has been a strong bounce-back team, not only in this series and not only in the playoffs but for the past two months.
After defeating the Kraken 5-2 in the first regular-season meeting back on March 13, Dallas lost back-to-back games at Vancouver (with since-departed backup goalie Matt Murray in net) and at Edmonton.
Those two defeats were on March 14 and March 16.
The Stars haven’t suffered consecutive losses in 25 games since, going 8-0 following a setback. Here are the final scores of their last six bounce-back victories:
4-1 (at Chicago), 5-1 (vs. Nashville), 7-3 (vs. Minnesota in the opening round), 3-2 (at Minnesota), 4-2 (vs. Seattle), 6-3 (at Seattle).
Dallas’ No. 1 goaltender Jake Oettinger was in net for five of those wins, and he gave up an average of 2.20 goals per game.
Although he wasn’t among this year’s three finalists for the Vezina Trophy — which is awarded to the NHL’s best regular-season goalie — Oettinger easily could’ve been. He went 37-11-11 with a 2.37 goals-against average and .919 save percentage.
Unfortunately for the 24-year-old Minnesota native, he’s had serious consistency issues in the playoffs. He’s surrendered 18 goals in Dallas’ four losses and just 10 in his team’s six wins.
Still, you have to go back to mid-February for the last time Oettinger lost consecutive games.
It was actually a three-game slide against Boston, Minnesota and Chicago. And even then, the first two defeats were in overtime (3-2 vs. Boston) and a shootout (2-1 at Minnesota).
Since then, Oettinger is 10-0 following a loss.
That, of course, not only speaks to Oettinger’s bounce-back capabilities but also those of his teammates.
Another reason we’re backing Dallas on the puck line Monday night: Since a back-and-forth series opener that Seattle won 5-4 in overtime, these teams have engaged in one blowout after another.
Final scores going back to Game 2: 4-2, 7-2, 6-3, 5-2 and 6-3.
Two of the Kraken’s first three losses in their opening round series against Colorado also were by multiple goals. And their last four defeats to Dallas since March 13 have been by margins of 3, 2, 3 and 3 goals.
Meanwhile, each of the Stars’ last five playoff victories have been by multiple goals. That includes wins of 4-0 and 4-1 to close out Minnesota in the first round.
So we’re betting on those solid trends continuing in Game 7, with Dallas coming out on top at home — even if it takes a late-game empty netter to cover the puck line.
Moneyline: Kraken (+175) @ Stars (-210)
Puck Line: Kraken +1.5 (-145) @ Stars -1.5 (+122)
Total: 6 goals (Over +100/Under -120)
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